There are some big matches on the NFL Week 11 schedule that make player prop betting worthwhile.
This article details my favorite picks for Sunday Slate boards.
Last week, my pick for this column was 1-2, marking the first losing week of the season. He's now 21-7 on the season with these picks, 83-62 across player props, and has earned a profit of 24.39 units.
Josh Jacobs, rushing yards over 70.5 (-110, bet 365)
The Packers have run an incredibly run-heavy offense this season, feeding Josh Jacobs on early downs. They lead the NFL in early down rush play rate and I expect that to continue against this L'Anfernel Bears defense.
According to @FTNBetting , Chicago ranks 6th in passing by DVOA, but only 30th in rushing. As a result, this year's opponents' better-than-expected pass-play rate is the ninth lowest in the league.
In other words, the Bears' opponents are very run-biased.
According to @FantasyPtsData , the Bears had the fifth-highest explosive rush rate in the NFL this year and the most adjusted yards to contact per attempt.
The Packers will create a lot of rushing lanes for Jacobs, who should rank seventh in adjusted yards to contact per attempt.
Jacobs has been an excellent running back this season, ranking fourth with 20 runs of 10 yards or more and fifth with 3.73 yards per attempt after contact.
With the Packers acting as the road favorite, this could be a great spot for him.
Matthew Stafford, 1.5+ passing touchdowns (+116, FanDuel)
The Rams' red zone struggles are well-documented and were on full display Monday night when the team had to make three field goals on the move inside the Miami 20-yard line. .
Last year, the Rams ranked 8th in the NFL with a red zone touchdown rate of 60.3%. This year, it dropped to 46.9% (30th place).
With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp healthy, four of the five Week 1 starters back in the lineup, and the health of the offensive line improving, a positive return should come soon.
The Patriots rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and 28th in EPA, making this a great matchup for Stafford.
Stafford has had two or more passing touchdowns in nine of 16 games with Kupp and Nacua healthy since last year, giving them a hitting rate of 56 percent.
At +116 odds, we're working with an implied probability of 46.3%, so we think there's great value before factoring in an interesting matchup against a vulnerable New England defense.
George Pickens, 65.5+ receiving yards (-110, bet 365)
The Ravens have the league's best pass funnel defense this year, ranking 4th in run defense DVOA and 25th in pass defense DVOA.
Opponents have responded with the highest-than-expected pass rate in the NFL this year, and the Steelers are 31st in that metric, but we should see their passing volume increase this week.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
Even with limited run-heavy offense, George Pickens has cleared this receiving line in all three of Russell Wilson's starts this season, averaging 92 yards per game.
He was one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL this season, gaining 2.59 yards per route run, ranking second behind Justin Jefferson and second among 38 eligible receivers. is ranked.
Expect Wilson and Pickens to connect on some moon balls this week. The Ravens rank 29th in deep ball pass defense DVOA, with Pickens recording 11 receptions on throws of 20 yards or more and 11 receptions in the NFL, including five in Wilson's three starts. standing on top.
Bo Nix, less than 0.5 interceptions (-115, DraftKings)
I have to give credit to Action Network analyst Nick Giffen for this nomination. He has continued to play as an interception underscorer against the Falcons in recent weeks.
I like this spot for Bo Nix to avoid making mistakes, as he is one of the least mistake-making quarterbacks in the league despite being a rookie.
According to PFF, the Knicks have had just one turnover-worthy play in their past seven games. Since Week 2, his plays have resulted in just 1% of turnovers, tied for the lowest in the NFL.
He has just two interceptions in the past eight games.
He won't face much pressure here, as only 1.1% of his plays are worth a turnover this season when the Knicks are held scoreless. The Falcons rank 29th in pressure rate and the Broncos rank first in pass block win rate.
(Please note that lines fluctuate throughout the week, sometimes dramatically. So if you need help determining whether your number is still playable, please contact us at X. @wayne_bets)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He gained 84.5 units across two sports for an ROI of 6.27%.
