The Chiefs and Bills will face off in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon, rekindling their annual rivalry.
Kansas City is the only undefeated team at 9-0, and this will be the last time the Chiefs will be on the losing side during the regular season.
Coaches tend to have different ideas about approaching an undefeated season, but some think it's better to lose in the regular season than suffer the first loss in the playoffs.
As a result, this game may not be all that important for the Chiefs in the grand scheme of things.
In this preview, we'll revisit this series' head-to-head matchup and explore why Bills quarterback Josh Allen tends to save his best performances for these big games.
Here are my best bets for Bills vs. Chiefs.
Chiefs vs. Bills odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| chiefs | +2 (-108) | +110 | 46+ (-108) |
| invoice | -2 (-112) | -130 | Under 46 (-108) |
Chiefs vs. Bills predictions
Chiefs outlook
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown nine interceptions through nine games, five interceptions shy of last season's career-high of 14.
But his 69.5% completion percentage is also a career high.
According to Robbie Greer's quarterback rankings, Mahomes' completion percentage above expectations (CPOE) is 4.1%.
So while Mahomes is recording more interceptions, he's still throwing the ball with great accuracy.
And when looking at the all-encompassing total QBR metric, Mahomes ranks fifth with a value of 67.6.
Last season, the Chiefs won their second straight title even when Mahomes posted his worst total QBR (63.9).
Today's sports world is almost entirely data-driven, but it's clear that numbers alone don't tell the whole story for the Chiefs.
As a result, it's hard to overlook the intangibles at play for the Chiefs, such as continuity with the coaching staff and a natural ability to adapt on the fly in key moments of a game.
bill outlook
Allen is having another great season, but it's hard to imagine him not winning the MVP award yet.
This season, he threw 17 touchdowns with four run-time on the ground and only four interceptions. He boasts a total QBR of 70.2, ranking him 4th in this category.
The Bills lead the AFC East with an 8-2 record and rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA metrics.
Allen had the best record against Mahomes in their regular-season meetings, posting a 3-1 record.
However, they have yet to defeat their arch-rival, who is 0-3 in the playoffs.
Where the Bills struggle against Kansas City is often a lack of execution and attention to detail.
So there's no better time for them to be put to the ultimate test than when they face the Chiefs.
Buffalo still needs a confidence boost in case the two teams meet again in the playoffs.
Looking at the Eastern Conference standings, the Chiefs have the fifth-highest goal differential (+58) and are the only undefeated team.
By comparison, the Bills boast a +97 point differential, 39 points better than Kansas City.
The Chiefs also have the highest luck factor (+3.0) per TeamRankings, and at some point you have to wonder if such a level is sustainable.
Chiefs vs. Bills picks
To be honest, I'm completely torn on which direction to go with this match. Because the last thing you want to do is try to fade Mahomes out as an underdog.
According to Action Network, the Chiefs' quarterback is 7-1-1 at this spot during the regular season and 12-1-1 including the postseason.
So while I'm leaning toward the Bills in this game, I can't fully commit to the home team just yet.
But one way to score points in favor of the Bills is to exceed Allen's rushing attempts prop of 7.5.
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Allen is more of a pocket passer, but he's not afraid to put his body on the line in these high-leverage games.
It's worth noting that he had over 7.5 rushing attempts in each of the four regular season games against the Chiefs.
The game is even more meaningful when the opponent is Kansas City, and I expect Allen to do everything he can to get the win.
Best bet: Josh Allen, 7.5 rushing attempts (-105, DraftKings)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He has won money on two 15-leg teasers and a 12-leg parlay during his betting career, including eight games in the Little League World Series. Most recently, they accurately selected the finalists for the 2024 European Championship and Copa America.
