At least 24 previously unprecedented heatwaves have hit communities around the globe, a new assessment shows, in a clear sign of how severely human-induced global warming is causing extreme weather events. It became proof.
Impossible heatwaves have claimed lives across North America, Europe and Asia, with evidence that the chances of them occurring would have been virtually zero if it weren't for the extra heat trapped by fossil fuel emissions. Shown by scientific analysis.
Further research has assessed how much global warming is exacerbating the effects of extreme weather events, with shocking results. Estimates suggest that without the additional man-made heat, millions of people and thousands of newborns would not have died prematurely.
Studies calculating the impact of the climate crisis, now an extreme disaster, found that in total, 550 heat waves, floods, storms, droughts and wildfires will become significantly more severe or more frequent due to global warming. It shows what happened. But this roll call of suffering only scratches the surface of the true damage. Most extreme weather phenomena are not analyzed by scientists.
A new database of hundreds of studies analyzing the role of global warming in extreme weather events has been completed. Compiled by the website “Carbon Brief” and shared it with the Guardian. This is the only comprehensive assessment that provides overwhelming evidence that the climate emergency is here today, destroying lives and livelihoods in every corner of the world.
Research has so far investigated the effects of global warming of about 1.3 degrees Celsius. The outlook for temperatures of 2.5 to 3.0 degrees towards which the world is headed is therefore catastrophic, scientists warn. They urge countries around the world meeting at the Cop29 climate summit in Azerbaijan to significantly and rapidly reduce carbon emissions and provide the protection many communities desperately need against the now inevitable climate disaster. is asking for funding.
The science of determining the role of global warming in extreme weather events is called attribution. In the early days, more than a decade ago, the relatively subtle effects detected were likened to finding the signatures of climate change. Today, the effects are so obvious that researchers are more like witnesses to a crime.
“Some say climatologists shouldn't paint a picture of doom and gloom. But we're human, we have emotions and we have children,” said Dr. Joyce Kimutai of Imperial College London in the UK. said. World weather attribution He is a member of the group and an advisor to Kenya's Cop29 delegation.
“The increasing impact of climate change on the intensity of extreme weather events is definitely concerning,” she says. “And if this situation continues, it's going to be really difficult for everyone. There's no discrimination in how the climate crisis affects people. It's affecting every corner of the world.”
Kimutai said the attribution study showed there was a “critical need” for a significant increase in funding to protect people from extreme weather events, particularly in areas already vulnerable to heatwaves, floods and storms. said. He said the level of funding was “stunningly and painfully small compared to the needs”. Providing at least $1 trillion in financing is a key task for Azerbaijan's Cop29 negotiators.
“The weight of the evidence supports the impact of anthropogenic warming today, not in the distant future,” said Robert McSweeney of Carbon Brief, who compiled the database.
impossible thing
This is especially true of impossible extreme weather events, events that are extremely unlikely to occur without the turbocharging of human-induced global warming.
They show that burning fossil fuels is dramatically changing the climate, with heat waves hitting communities with an intensity and frequency never seen throughout the past 5,000 years of human civilization's development. are. It's a new world with unprepared cities, hospitals, roads, and farms, and one that's becoming more dangerous every day as carbon dioxide continues to be pumped into the atmosphere.
Nowhere is safe. In the past two years, previously impossible heat has hit the Earth. mediterranean cuisine to Thailandand from Philippines to extremely vulnerable peopleafrican sahel At the end of Ramadan. For the previous two years, both North America and Europe Hit by unprecedented heat, South Korea And even the ice Tibetan Plateau.
The incredible scorched earth scars continue even deeper. China and Russia and arctic – One town records 38℃ – 2020, europe again In 2019 and beyond northern hemisphere In 2018.
oldest record impossible heat wave It was in 2016when it actually gets hot, whole earth Without global warming, subsequent survival would not have been possible. The oceans are also being affected, with an unprecedented marine heatwave. tasman sea, northeast pacific and arctic ocean In recent years.
Many other extreme events are much more likely to occur and place a greater load on the weather dice. In the sweltering heat, Northern India and Pakistan in May 2022 is 100 times more likely than the heavy rains that caused it. horrifying floods in libya September 2023 and Drought in the Amazon River Basin In 2023.
result
Attribution scientists not only analyze the extreme weather events themselves, but also quantify the human cost by estimating how much of the damage caused could have been avoided if the burning of fossil fuels had not warmed the world. It is becoming
According to one study, 1 in 3 newborns die If global warming had not pushed temperatures beyond normal limits, they would have survived because of the heat. That means approximately 10,000 babies die each year. This study evaluated low-income and middle-income countries from 2001 to 2019.
another study Many people die from heatstroke in the summer The study from 1991 to 2018 also found the deadly effects of global warming in the 43 countries assessed. It is not easy to extrapolate these findings to global numbers, but scientists roughly estimate that more than 100,000 people die each year. For 20 years, that means millions of lives lost to the climate crisis.
Deadly supercharging due to extreme weather is not new and has existed for at least 20 years, but largely undetected. But more than that 1000 people died prematurely Britain would have survived the 2003 heatwave without global heating.
Recently, Hurricane Maria increases in intensity in 20173,700 people died in Puerto Rico due to climate change, but 13,000 people would not have died kicked out of the house In 2019, there was no global heating in Mozambique due to Tropical Cyclone Idai.
Global warming is destroying not only homes but also lives. hurricane harvey is 30%-50% not flooded Of US real estate submerged in 2017 without global warming.
A man walks through a destroyed street in Roseau, Dominica, Caribbean, on September 23, 2017, after Hurricane Maria. Photo: Cedric Isham Calvados/AFP/Getty Images
The cost of the hurricane's destruction soared by billions of dollars. hurricane sandy In the US in 2012, Typhoon Hagabis In Japan in 2019. four major floods In the UK, only half of the $18 billion worth of buildings would have been damaged without human-induced climate change.
In addition to this series of destruction, Crop losses in the United States and southern africaglobal warming is responsible for taking billions of dollars worth of food off people's plates. It also brought about changes in cultural events, Famous early blooming cherry blossoms This is the oldest date recorded in Kyoto, Japan for over 1,200 years.
detail
The 744 attribution studies collated by Carbon Brief used climate data to compare extreme events in today's warmer climate with computer models of the climate that existed before large-scale fossil fuel burning. The phenomena were compared. This comparison allowed scientists to calculate how likely and severe today's extreme events are, and revealed the role of anthropogenic global warming in exacerbating this phenomenon.
Three-quarters of analyzes of extreme weather events found that global warming will make extreme weather events more severe or more likely to occur. Another 9% were mostly extreme cold and snow events, so as expected, they were less likely. The rest were inconclusive, in part because they either found no discernible effects of global warming or lacked sufficient data. This analysis includes studies published through the end of September 2024.
Major regions of the world, with the exception of Europe, North America, and China, are least studied by attribution scientists, leaving the true impacts of the climate crisis underreported. Problems include a lack of long-term weather data and scientific capacity. The Middle East and North Africa are the hardest hit countries, with particularly low levels despite being the largest producers of fossil fuels.
