WASHINGTON — President Biden has authorized Ukraine to use powerful long-range ballistic missiles to strike deep into Russia. But experts worry it's too little, too late.
The move, announced Sunday, lifts restrictions on the launch of the U.S.-built Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which has a range nearly twice that of most missiles in Ukraine's arsenal.
But the 190-mile range missile can only be used to protect Ukraine's foothold in Russia's Kursk region. multiple media reported.
The Kremlin has amassed 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops in Russia's western region to retake territory captured by Kiev in a surprise invasion earlier this year.
George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War said the Kursk decision was a “good thing” but that lifting U.S. government restrictions on ATACMS use across Russia would have a more consequential effect.
“The general trend is toward the right decision, but the right decision is in some ways a day late, a dollar short,” Barros told the Post.
“Gradualism and death by 1,000 reductions is the formula that will determine how we provide support to Ukraine in this war, and that is unfortunate,” he added.
Meanwhile, maps produced by ISW identify 245 known Russian military objects reachable by ATACMS, 17 of which are located in the Kursk region and are targets for attacks by the Ukrainians.
Some of these military assets include the Kursk Vostochny Air Base, the 14th Combat Aviation Regiment, and various brigade headquarters, all of which Russia has likely removed, but which remain active in war operations. depends on.
The Biden administration has previously cited Moscow's move of assets deep into Russian territory as a reason for opposing the green light for ATACMS in Russia, but Barros said the bases and infrastructure are in the hands of Russia's battlegrounds, such as refueling stations. continues to support essential infrastructure for the United States, and said that could be Russia's job. Harder.
“The Russians don't necessarily have a lot of aircraft, but [parked at] They still use the Air Force base even though it’s no longer there,” he said. “They send planes there quickly to replenish fuel or something like that and then go back to another base. So the use of air bases is still a good thing. [to target.]”
ISW said the area also contains weapons and logistics warehouses, as well as regiment and troop bases, which could further deplete Russia's material and supply capabilities if targeted.
Still, Barros said the most valuable targets are not marked on the ISW map. ISW maps only identify established military assets, not the location of Russian and North Korean forces in the region.
“There are things that the Russians have risen up and are actively exploiting that are not shown on the map,” he said. “Wherever front-line troops are operating, there will be a command and control center and they will be in charge of the ammunition depot.” [that could be targeted.]”
The map also ignored infrastructure used by both Russian military and civilians, a legitimate practice under the laws of war. For example, public railways serve a “dual-use” purpose by enabling the transport of arms, ammunition, and supplies to the front lines.
Targeting railways is particularly important after intelligence revealed that North Korea is transporting its largest self-propelled 170mm howitzer by rail into western Russia. Destroying the Kursk railway could prevent artillery systems from reaching the area, or at least significantly delay their delivery.
“For example, a member sent to the Kursk region would have to go to some rail terminal and then close the distance to get to the final firing position,” Baros said. .
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Baros said Ukraine could allow howitzers to reach the area before destroying them, and could also use the movement to locate Russian and North Korean forces. said.
“Ukrainian attackers would be able to attack these artillery pieces, for example, when they are at the depot, where they are dismounted from the vehicle and go out onto the road to the firing position,” he said. “That would also be a legitimate military target.”
Barros is hopeful that a change of administration could bring about a needed shift from Biden's gradual policy changes.
“[The Biden administration] “I think this trend continues and with a new administration in place, there is potential for positive change if we continue on the right track,” he said.
“Change, of course, comes with risks, but there are also opportunities.”
President-elect Trump has remained largely silent about how he envisions U.S. policy in the fight against Ukraine under his leadership, but Barros said he has high hopes for the Trump-Vance administration. spoke.
“I hope that with a new cadre of officials and executives who are not used to the way we have done business in the past and the existing policies and schemes for quantitatively allocating support to this drip feed, we can achieve a healthier.” will give you the opportunity to adopt powerful strategies. ”
