With 11 weeks remaining until the 2024 NFL season, some teams are trying to avoid ruining their campaigns before it's too late. None of them are currently in the top seven seeds in the conference playoffs, but they all have a way to climb out of the hole if everything starts to go well.
So, here are three teams in the AFC that are out of playoff contention but have a chance of actually making it.
Note: Team DVOA metricsthe remaining strength of the opponent's adjusted schedule, and playoff odds These are courtesy of FTN, formerly known as Football Outsiders.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)
Current playoff odds: 10.5%
Strength of Rest of Schedule: 29th in DVOA
At some point, someone is going to have to help Joe Burrow a little bit. The Bengals currently rank 7th in offensive DVOA, 27th in defensive DVOA, and 29th in special teams DVOA, so it's easy to see what's at stake here. But it's worse than you think and it's ridiculous. In the Bengals' seven losses, Burrow completed 191 of 285 passes for 2,156 yards, 18 touchdowns, two interceptions and a 107.6 passer rating. Ja'Marr Chase currently holds the NFL's receiving triple crown with 73 catches for 1,053 yards and 12 touchdowns. They could do better than running back Chase Brown and his -12.2 EPA, but if the quarterback and No. 1 receiver play at Most Valuable Player level and there is no positive return. , you can ignore it.
The Bengals have lost three games this season with Burrow having three or more passing touchdowns, more than 300 passing yards, and no interceptions, the most losses in a season in the Super Bowl era. Want more? Cincinnati has lost three games this season in which Burrow led to 33 or more points. throughout his career. Tom Brady has suffered four such losses.
Perhaps that's why Brady, who at various points in his career has done so much to shore up shaky receivers and middle-of-the-pack defenses toward championships, gives Burrow some level of support in a recent interview. That might be why everyone else was so enthusiastic about what needed to be done.
And you can see it starting to wear on Burrow.
“Never in a million years did I expect that I would play this well and that he would play this well, and we still have a record like this (4-6).” – Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Burrow react to Bengals' 35-34 loss to Ravens pic.twitter.com/fE4EInaPXm
— James Rapien (@JamesRapien) November 8, 2024
The good news for the Bengals is that their defense probably can't get any worse, and given the relative ease of the rest of Cincinnati's schedule, even a middle-of-the-pack defense could turn things around. That's true. If that doesn't happen, Burrow and Chase will become a footnote in history in the worst possible way.
Indianapolis Colts (5-6)
Current playoff odds: 20.8%
Strength of rest of schedule: 24th in DVOA
The Colts have been going back and forth between running Joe Flacco as a short-term quarterback as they look to make the playoffs, and second-year forward Anthony Richardson as the sun sets. Developing Richardson for the future. The Colts, once 4-3, had lost three in a row before beating the Jets last Sunday, and while a win over the Jets isn't necessarily something you'd want to put on your resume, it's a postseason favorite like Indy. It might have saved my chance. However, the recent benching appears to be helping Richardson, and he will remain in the running for this season until (and unless) head coach Shane Steichen decides to make further changes that have been an issue all season. He will be the starter for the remaining games.
The Colts could also use some help on the defensive end, but given defensive coordinator Gus Bradley's schematic limitations, there may be limits to a unit that currently ranks 17th in defensive DVOA. do not have. Bradley's defense has a high-volume four-way front, minimal coverage switches, and prefers to play as a “run defense” that focuses more on the player than the playbook. It's okay if all players are present.
That means the offense, which ranks 23rd in DVOA, and the rest of the schedule, which ranks 24th, will be key. Unless Richardson can build on what he did against the Jets in a hurry, the Colts may be out of options. But something strange happened.
Miami Dolphins (4-6)
Current playoff odds: 16.0%
Strength of rest of schedule: 27th in DVOA
This is not difficult to understand. time dolphin They would be a much better team if they put Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback instead of Tyler Huntley or Skyler Thompson. With Tagovailoa out, Miami's offensive EPA is +0.07 and passing EPA is +0.17. Without him, the offensive EPA is -0.27 and the passing EPA is -0.25. So a lot of the story for Miami's future is about Tagovailoa being healthy, concussion-free, and keeping himself out of harm's way. It's not necessarily the easiest thing to do.
One point of pressure has been lifted – the Dolphins are out because the 9-2 Buffalo Bills are in a chokehold on the AFC East. that. Additionally, Miami's defense under first-year defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver has seen a significant jump from 28th in defensive DVOA from Weeks 1-9 to Week 11. Considering the general efficiency and explosiveness of Mike McDaniel's offense when he gets the right quarterback, the improved defense, and the easy flow of games down the stretch, he starts the season 1-3. The Dolphins suddenly have a strong chance to make the postseason.
