The incoming administration of Donald Trump is inheriting a house on fire in the Middle East, but it has a great chance of winning there if the new team is ready to act boldly.
That would require some risky foreign policy moves that might not be consistent with his campaign's domestic focus, but a Nobel Peace Prize for Trump could be at the end of this path. I don't know.
“Trump wants to 'win,'” said Robert Hamilton, director of Eurasia studies at the Foreign Policy Institute. “That could range from winning a war with Iran to brokering a broader regional peace deal.”
It would also be a fundamental shift from the Biden administration's approach, which has often appeared indecisive and risk-averse and focused more on de-escalation than solutions. There is a willingness to shift paradigms in many Arab countries where weakness is downplayed.
Such a change would carry the risk of escalation with Iran, which could require the threat of force. It will also be necessary to show Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not only the support he expects, but also some tough love. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's supporters are overjoyed by the freedom of action on all fronts.
President Trump's foreign policy cabinet choices thus far are certainly consistent with the former. Sens. Marco Rubio (Secretary of State), Mike Walz (National Security Adviser), and Pete Hegseth (Defense Adviser) are all different types of appointments, and Mr. Rubio is widely recognized as Both countries stand out as realists who have a strong understanding of Iran, but they are all hawks on Iran.
If President Trump succeeds in doing any of these things, and even ends the war in Ukraine on terms that do not constitute a surrender to President Vladimir Putin, it will be a legacy for a new and old president who is generally not well-trusted around the world. This will prove the validity of the construction.
This is a roadmap the next administration can follow to make the Middle East great again.
Iran: “An ultimatum?”
“We can no longer appease this regime,” Rubio said recently of Iran's mullahs. And translating that into policy would be a big step in the right direction.
It could be something simple. Iran must abandon its proxy militias and nuclear program or face the consequences. The ultimatum is a clear departure from Biden's “re-engagement” approach, which, like his predecessors, allowed his administration to spread chaos through proxies such as Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthis and Iraq's Shi'ite militias. It will be a farewell.
Hezbollah is currently suffering a severe blow from Israel, but Iran continues to attack. Deploys Shiite militias and Houthi fighters From Yemen to the failed state of Syria, from where it could support Hezbollah, threaten neighboring Israel, and destabilize US ally Jordan.
An ultimatum carries the risk of war, but allowing the mullahs to maintain their power as a marginal nuclear state may pose a greater risk. Attack on Iran could spark an uprising against the hateful regime that rules Iran 30% inflation And partly because financing foreign wars was unpopular, the value of the rial fell by 25% in three months. It could collapse and it would be advantageous for the world.
Dr. Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-born Israeli Middle East analyst, agreed that “Iranians fear another uprising and feel weaker than before,” but added, “They are “They would rather negotiate with Trump than surrender.”
Qatar: End double game
Qatar is home to the American al-Udeid air base, but it is also a haven for Hamas, allowing it to operate there and funnel money to Gaza.
Hamas leaders currently based in Qatar include the group's foreign envoy, Khalid Mashal, and senior adviser Khalil al-Haya. There are reports that Qatar is close to reaching an agreement. expel them —That's a great start.
Ending Qatar's double game will be welcomed by Sunni countries, including Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the plan will require cooperation from both countries. Trump's team should also consider conducting a global hunt for jihadist funding networks. complex meshwork of the skull It enabled Hamas to operate throughout Europe and America.
For Qatar, the days of claiming alliance with the United States while secretly funding extremist activities may soon be over.
Lebanon: Demanding accountability
Hezbollah receives Estimated $700 million annually It emigrated from Iran and until recently controlled perhaps a quarter of Lebanon, using southern Lebanon as a launching pad against Israel. The group has been shelling the north for about a year, starting the day after the October 7 Hamas massacre and before Israel sent a single soldier into Gaza.
Now that Israel has defeated Hezbollah, an agreement could be reached for Lebanese forces to retake the south, perhaps with support from the Arab League and international forces, even before President Trump takes office.
In any case, the clear message should be: Tolerating Hezbollah's activities is no longer acceptable.
Jonathan El-Khoury, a Lebanese-born, Israel-based geopolitical analyst, believes Lebanon is ready for change.
“Due to the current war, support for Hezbollah has decreased significantly, including among the Shiite community,” said El-Khoury, who closely monitors sentiment in his home country. “The Lebanese Army remains neutral and has been able to enforce its sovereignty over southern Lebanon with financial support and the presence of additional troops.”
Yemen: Protect global trade
The Houthi group, an extremist group allied with Iran, brought devastation to Yemen But also Disrupted a third of the world's container traffic Through bold attacks that accounted for about one-sixth of all maritime trade, at least 130 merchant ships The passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the past year was justified as “solidarity” with the Palestinians.
Biden's response was limited to a few airstrikes in conjunction with British forces that failed to stop them.
According to IMF data, weekly trade through the Suez Canal is Weekly tonnage drastically reduced from more than 5 million tons to less than 2 million tons Therefore, there has been a corresponding increase in maritime traffic around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. It was a very expensive project and also robbed beleaguered Egypt of wealth. $6 billion in revenueaccording to Tradewinds News.
The Trump administration has told the Houthis that further aggression will be met with overwhelming force, potentially suggesting that economic stability and freedom of navigation, not bargaining chips, are U.S. priorities.
Israel: Support — with boundaries
It's true that the Trump campaign, especially ambassador nominee Mike Huckabee, loves Israel, but that doesn't mean they support Netanyahu's every plot.
The Prime Minister plans to postpone the commission of inquiry into the October 7 disaster until after the fighting is over, confirming the kind of eternal war President Trump despises.
Unlike in Lebanon, there are complex Israeli issues here. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition government relies on far-right parties that want to occupy and settle Gaza, preventing it from being replaced by a revitalized Palestinian Authority, the only viable alternative to Hamas.
If Israel agrees to that and agrees to new negotiations on a settlement with the Palestinians; persuade Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords – perhaps the biggest success of President Trump's first term.
That's exactly what it is Steve Witkoff, incoming special envoy to the Middle EastThat's what he's there for, as a real estate investor with direct ties to President Trump. The message to Prime Minister Netanyahu will be: The United States supports Israel in its fight against jihadist terrorists, but after that it must rebuild Israel. 2020 Plan for the Establishment of a Palestinian State that you have already agreed to.
In Mr. Trump's and many Israelis' view, a demilitarized Palestinian state would actually benefit Israel and preserve its Jewish majority. Prime Minister Netanyahu has been so supportive of President Trump that Israelis will be hoping that Trump will not show the same disrespect he has shown to Biden.
Türkiye: NATO ally under surveillance
President Trump could stress that support for terrorists is incompatible with its obligations as a NATO ally and demand that Turkey end its support for Hamas and abandon its flirtation with Russia. Additionally, he will press Turkey to finally acknowledge its role in the Armenian genocide and make peace with its history that could pave the way for more transparent relations and a healthier environment in the South Caucasus. There is a possibility of prompting.
Sunni Arab allies: A bolder partnership
Moderate Sunni Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, are calling for a clear and irreversible break from the various mafias that are destabilizing the region, rather than just nagging Hamas and its kin. , they may be forced to take a bolder stance.
Sunni states may be asked to support the demilitarization of a Palestinian state. If Israel agrees and Saudi Arabia joins the circle of peace, the next domino should be a Sunni-Israeli-US security alliance as a bulwark against Iran.
Palestinians: Demanding Reform
The Palestinian Authority should continue to receive U.S. support (Israel's security services want it), but it should also demonstrate real reform. These include an end to anti-Semitic rhetoric in educational materials, a lack of flattery with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and an acceptance of demilitarization.
In order to reach a deal, the Trump administration may seek to back away from its long-standing demand for a maximalist “end of claims” in exchange for independence. For the PA, this could be a transformative opportunity to finally win the state.
Dan Perry is a former Europe, Africa and Middle East regional editor for The Associated Press, served as president of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem and wrote two books on Israel. please follow him danperry.substack.com
