One of the biggest surprises of the election was how close the presidential race was in New Jersey. The state, which President Joe Biden won by a 16-point margin four years ago, gave only a fraction to Vice President Kamala Harris. 6 points The difference in victory.
It is too early to analyze in detail what led to the decline in Democratic support. In New Jersey, election results are still weeks away from being finalized. But New Jersey is clearly not unique among blue states.
In New Jersey, support for the Democratic presidential candidate fell by 10 points. dropped The difference was 8 points in California and Massachusetts, and 11 points in New York. The decline in New Jersey's approval ratings was notable, as the state appeared to be moving from a safe blue state to a swing state, but New York's approval ratings declined even more sharply, with Harris still trailing by 12 points. He maintained his advantage.
It is also clear that the surprisingly close presidential election in New Jersey was largely due to a decline in Democratic votes, not an increase in Republican votes. Harris received 15% fewer votes than Biden in the Garden State in 2020, while President-elect Donald Trump received 4% more votes than he did in 2020.
Again, in other blue states, votes for Harris fell by the same amount or more, while support for Trump increased. Harris received 15% fewer votes than Biden in Hawaii, 16% fewer votes in New York, and 18% fewer votes in California. Trump's vote increased by 6% in Massachusetts and Vermont. 7% in Delaware, New York and Rhode Island. In the District of Columbia, it's 12 percent.
This data does not suggest that New Jersey is moving dramatically to the right. But a realignment appears to be occurring, reflecting some of the national demographic trends.
Trump received more votes than he did in 2020 in 11 of New Jersey's 21 counties, but his vote total remained the same or decreased in 10 other counties. Trump's biggest gains in votes were in the state's five most Democratic, racially, ethnically and economically advantaged counties. diverse county — Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Passaic, Union — saw double-digit growth there. This coincides with a growing national shift toward President Trump among working-class voters of all races and ethnicities. Conversely, President Trump did worse in some states than he did four years ago. the whitest and most Republican counties, Cape May, Hunterdon, and Salem.
These voting trends are from before 2024. In the 2020 election, Trump's approval ratings rose the most in the same heavily Democratic and diverse counties, while Biden's approval ratings rose the most compared to Hillary Clinton. It was the most Republican and least diverse county in the state.
Four additional factors likely influenced New Jersey's election results.
First, the perception that the state is safely Democratic at the presidential level and the lack of competition in the House and Senate may have reduced Democratic turnout. new jersey's 7th Congressional DistrictThe only district identified as competitive had 34,000 more residents vote than the next highest turnout district.
Second, Trump was able to tap into what appeared to be low-propensity voters. Many of them don't vote against Republicans. Trump received 194,000 more votes than New Jersey Republican Senate candidate Curtis Bashaw and 139,000 more votes than the Republican House candidate. By contrast, Ms. Harris received only 59,000 votes more than her Democratic Senate candidate, Representative Andy Kim, and 104,000 more votes than her Democratic House candidate.
Thirdly, Implemented in 2018 Percentage of low-propensity voters eligible through automatic voter registration. The number of registered voters increased by 13 percent in the six years after the introduction of automatic voter registration, compared to an 8 percent increase in the six years before that.
Fourth, voting was made easier in 2020 by the temporary mailing of paper ballots to all registered voters during the pandemic. Voter participation increased to 70 percent in 2020, compared to 67 percent in 2016.
Expanded voting rights and ease of voting appear to have helped Democrats in 2020. Historic levels of youth voting. While expanded voting rights may have helped Republicans this year, benefiting from President Trump's appeal to lower-propensity voters, overall turnout has decreased to 63%.
Julia Sass Rubin is a faculty member in the Edward J. Bluestein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University-New Brunswick, where she also serves as associate dean for academic programs and director of public policy programs.
