Exit polls show Irish voters are expressing dissatisfaction with Taoist Simon Harris, even though the return of the current government is the most likely outcome of the election.
Of the 5,000 voters surveyed after the vote, 35% named Fianna Fail leader Michael Martin as their preferred new leader for the 34th Dail.
However, cementing Sinn Féin's place in Irish politics and reflecting the current leader's popularity, 34% said they wanted President Mary Lou MacDonald to lead the country, coming in third place. This is far ahead of Fine Gael leader Harris. The exit poll showed 27%.
Voters are not choosing sides, but the exit polls show grim results for the two major parties. 59% of 18-34 year olds said they want McDonald's to lead the country, and 56% of 25-34 year olds said they want McDonald's to lead the country. supported her.
A new government led by Sinn Féin is unlikely, as a coalition government is most likely. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have ruled out forming a government with the party, the former political wing of the IRA in Northern Ireland.
Harris, 38, who called a snap election three weeks ago, entered the race in a leading position, but his brand has been tarnished by a series of missteps, including an awkward encounter with a care worker.
He appears to have won 21% of first preference votes, behind Sinn Féin's 21.1% and slightly ahead of Fianna Fail, who are expected to come in third place (19.5%).
“I think there was a lot of momentum behind the centre-left alternative until a year, year and a half ago, but that momentum has since waned,” said Richard Boyd, director of the People Before Profit Collection. Barrett says. Teachita Dallas (Rep.) is expected to receive approximately 3.1% of the vote.
Alwyn Enright, Fine Gael's campaign manager, said the exit poll was a “positive” prediction for the party, but he was “surprised” by the response to the Signpost preference.
Outgoing Fianna Fail finance minister Jack Chambers said the result was “too close to judge”.
Other exit polls showed Social Democrats (5.8%), Labor (5%), Greens (4%), Aontu (3.6%), Solidarity of Interests (3.1%) and Independent Ireland (2.2%). Ta. Independent candidates and other candidates accounted for 14.6%. There is an error of about 1.4%.
Ballot boxes were opened at 9 a.m. Saturday, and the first count of first-choice votes was expected until late afternoon, with the count not expected to be complete until Sunday night or Monday morning.
Exit polls found voters' second preferences were 20% each for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, and 17% for Sinn Féin.
The lack of a conclusive result means that the world's attention will now be focused on exploring potential coalition partners. Negotiations to form a government could take weeks, and a new government may not be in place until January.
The Dáil requires 87 seats to secure a majority out of 174 seats, but the expected vote share for each of the three parties is expected to reach around 30 seats, so it is unlikely that any party will be able to form a majority government on their own. You can't do it.
The predicted results appear to buck the trend in Europe, where incumbent parties have returned despite unprecedented violence in Dublin a year ago and immigration remains well below voters' priorities. is.
The housing crisis and homelessness emerged as a top priority among voters, with 28% citing it as the biggest influence on their decision after cost of living, the economy and health, with just 6% citing immigration.
Unlike the UK, which uses a first-come, first-served system, Ireland uses a proportional representation system, where voters can rank candidates and candidates are eliminated in descending voting rounds.
The Green Party, which supports Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in the current government, is expected to lose some of its 12 seats with an expected vote share of 4%, while Labor has a slight lead at 5% and is expected to lose some of its 12 seats. The Democratic Party is expected to emerge next in the rankings. The fourth party is 5.8%.
Another small party, the right-wing Aontu, appears to have doubled its vote share and could end up winning more seats than the Greens.
Party leader Pedal Tobin told RTÉ that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the two parties that emerged from the ashes of civil war in the 1920s, were “in many ways one party” with around 60 per cent of voters voting yes. He said that he thinks it is becoming a new country. About other parties.
The survey was carried out by Ipsos MRBI across RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin, with around 5,000 voters voting during the day. It comes with two strong health warnings. This reflects first preference voting only and has a margin of error.
