2024 as the Biden administration continues to tackle the historic immigration crisis at the southern border, immigration crimes make headlines across the country, and both issues become top priorities for voters heading into the November election. Immigration and border security were hot topics.
These topics are likely to remain relevant in 2025. Here are five things to look out for in 2025.
Border states offer vast tracts of land as trump card to support mass deportation operations
In May 2023, a U.S. Border Patrol vehicle picks up a group of vulnerable migrants, including unaccompanied minors, crossing from Mexico in El Paso, Texas. (John Moore/Getty Images)
Will Mr. Trump achieve results?
President-elect Trump has promised to begin a historic mass deportation program next year. He declared a national emergency and expressed willingness to use military assets to carry it out. His team has already begun looking at ways to expand detention near metropolitan areas.
His border czar, Thomas Homan, has promised that threats to national security and public safety will be a priority, but illegal immigration will not be off the table. The Trump administration significantly increased deportations in 2019, before the coronavirus hit the United States, and is expected to go in that direction again.
President Trump may need to rally Congress for additional funding, but Republican control of the House and Senate has made that task easier and more effective against the policies he introduces. It will need to overcome potential lawsuits.
At the Congressional level, drastic legislation like HR2 is expected to be pushed forward. HR2 is a Republican border bill passed in 2023 that would significantly limit refugee admissions while providing additional resources at the border.
Will Democrats resist?
Officials in several Democratic states have already expressed resistance to the Trump administration's deportation push. Denver Mayor Mike Johnston recently said he was willing to go to prison for opposing President Trump's deportation plan.
Meanwhile, the governors of Massachusetts, Illinois and Arizona have all said they will not cooperate with deportations.
Trump officials say they don't need any help, just to stand by while federal authorities do their jobs. However, it will be interesting to see whether Democratic Party officials simply do not support the administration or whether they turn to active resistance.
President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with House Republicans at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Washington, DC, on November 13, 2024. (Alison Robert/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)
Mexican cooperation?
Mexico plays a critical role in ensuring the security of the U.S.-Mexico border, and the decline in encounter rates at the U.S. border often coincides with enforcement at Mexico's southern border.
That trend was also evident in 2024, as the number of people arriving at the border decreased after Biden administration officials met with Mexican officials in December 2023. The two countries had previously reached an agreement under which the U.S. would accept migrants through a parole program, which would result in Mexico accepting them as well. Accept a certain number of non-Mexican returns from the United States
But with President-elect Trump promising to end these programs, it is unclear how much Mexico will continue to cooperate.
President Trump has promised to impose steep 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico if the flow of illegal immigrants across the border cannot be stopped. This is a similar tactic that President Trump used to get Mexico to agree to expanding the Remain in Mexico policy in 2019.
But will it work? Is Mexico going to reduce traffic heading north or reduce enforcement? That's a question that will be answered in 2025.
For more information on the border security crisis, click here
What will Congress do?
Congress has struggled to find agreement on border security and immigration, which has plagued multiple administrations. President Biden and former President Barack Obama suffered setbacks in their efforts to get Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform, while President-elect Trump struggled to win over lawmakers to fund a wall on the southern border.
Republicans currently control the House and Senate, but by a narrow margin. So it's unclear whether we'll see a sweeping bill similar to the House Republican border bill passed by the House in 2023 make it to President Trump's desk.
President Trump can accomplish much through executive action, but his mass deportation plan will require additional funding from Congress. The extent to which Congress responds to these requests, along with additional security at the southern border to prevent migrants from entering the United States in the first place, will determine how successful the effort is.
Legal immigration?
Illegal immigration has been in the spotlight in the wake of the historic crisis at the southern border, and some are calling for additional restrictions on the use of visas such as the H-1B, as well as humanitarian parole, making it a key issue for the next administration. Very likely. Visa Technical Worker Program and H-2A Agricultural Worker Program.
Additionally, the government will re-implement the public charge rule that limits legal immigrants from obtaining green cards if they are dependent on some form of welfare and are considered likely to become welfare dependent if: I doubt whether I will even try. They get permanent residency. The administration is expected to reduce the number of parole admissions, which were significantly expanded under the Biden administration, and is also expected to lower the cap on the number of refugees allowed each year.
President-elect Trump and those in his incoming administration, including billionaire Elon Musk, have sometimes said they want more immigration, but only legal immigration.
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“We want a lot of people to come into our country, but we want them to come here legally,” President Trump said in October.
But some Trump supporters want to lower overall immigration levels, including legal immigration. Who wins the debate will become clearer as 2025 approaches.
