It's been another bad week for Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime collapsed in August 2021, faster than Afghanistan. Syrian rebels ambushed President Vladimir Putin's forces, cleared Aleppo and forced it to fall to Russian forces.surrender some military bases.
The Russian commander Lieutenant General Sergei Kisselpreviously commanded Russia's 1st Guards Tank Army in the Kharkov region of Ukraine, but was driven back by a Ukrainian counterattack in late 2022. I have now failed twice on the battlefield, but when I am called back again, it would be wise not to open the window. Kremlin.
The fighting is intensifying and Damascus is the clear target. Unlike Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Assad handed over ammunition and took a “ride-along” with his family. He took safe refuge in Russia, where “his relatives and associates own property valued at $40 million.”luxury apartmentLocated in Moscow's skyscraper district. ”
And as the Assad regime is likely to come to an end, so too may Russia's influence in the region.
Two important military installations are currently at risk. One is Khmeimim Air Base, where Russian aircraft have launched attacks against Syrian rebels and civilians, and the other is Tartus, home to Syria's only naval base. And without these two bases, Russian operations in the Middle East, Africa's Sahel region, and Sudan are likely to come to a halt as well.
Russia's tactics remain the same. Instead of attacking Syrian rebels, they target civilians In “liberated” populated areas. But the tactic has had minimal impact on rallying the foreign rebels leading the charge, Turkish-backed Islamic extremist groups. Hayat Tahrir Al Sham. The coalition, listed as a terrorist organization by the United Nations Security Council, has direct ties to al-Qaeda.
In hindsight, this was the result of Hamas's reckless October 7 terrorist attack on Israel, which was probably directed by Iran with Russian support. Both are already preoccupied with their own problems.Russia, Iran, and HezbollahThey are in a position to become close to Assad. President Putin's war with Ukraine has depleted Russia's resources, and Israel has weakened Iran and its proxies. The regional kaleidoscope is now changing and the conditions for “'' are ripe.broader regional conflictThe Biden administration was concerned.
For Moscow, it is not just Syria's Mediterranean ports that are at risk. Putin also faces the possibility of losing his state. Ochamchire district It is the port where the breakaway Republic of Abkhazia from Georgia wants to move its Black Sea fleet after being forced out of Sevastopol in a successful Ukrainian offensive.
Russian colonialism is also in decline in the Caucasus. In mid-November, demonstrators stormed the Abkhazian parliament and demanded the resignation of the prime minister. Aslan Bujania Critics fear that the unpopular investment deal with Moscow will lead to wealthy Russian individuals and companies buying up real estate in the lush Black Sea region and buying out local residents at a price. Ta”.
Georgians are still reelingOctober election resultsPresident Salome Zurabichvili claims it was stolen as part of a “Russian special operation.” They took to the streets of the capital, Tbilisi, on November 28, when the Dream Party was inaugurated as prime minister.Irakli Kobakidzeannounced that it would suspend European Union (EU) accession negotiations.
since then,protests expanded. Demonstrations were held in at least eight cities as “tens of thousands of Georgians took to the streets again on Sunday as massive protests across the country entered their fourth night.”
Russia is overextended. Abkhazia and South Ossetia could re-engage on behalf of Georgia if the pro-Russian Dream Party-led government collapses. Russia's significantly weakened conventional military may not be able to maintain these Russian-occupied territories. The loss of Abkhazia's ports will have a negative impact on Russia's influence in the Black Sea.
Adding to these problems were further public humiliations for President Putin. During a visit to Astana, Kazakhstan, to attend the Collective Security Treaty Organization summit, President Putin referred to Kazakhstan as a “Russian-speaking country.” However, when the president of Kazakhstan took office,Kasym Jomart TokayevHe addressed the summit audience in his native Kazakh. Anton Gerashchenko, a former adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, called the incident an “outrageous level of vandalism.”
This is the second country in the Russia-led security treaty to publicly disrespect Russia. In July, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan admitted:Armenia plans to withdraw after that.
Meanwhile, losses in Ukraine continue to rise at an alarming pace. In November alone, Russia made profits in the Donetsk sector while45,720 casualties307 tanks, 899 armored fighting vehicles, and 884 artillery pieces were also lost. In November, Russian casualties set a new record of 2,030 per day. For comparison purposes only,14,500 Russian soldiersKilled in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989.
But through it all, President Putin remains steadfast in his determination to win the war at all costs. in spite of,economy in turmoilhe continues to double down on Ukraine. On December 1st, he approved: 2025 budget proposal Military spending increased from 28.3 percent to 32.5 percent, 13.5 trillion ruble (currently worth $145 billion). That doesn't seem like someone who would be willing to negotiate.
Putin clearly believes he can outlast Ukraine and the West. What he doesn't have – trained soldiers and ammunition – he can buy from North Korea and Iran.evil arsenal. ”
President Putin'sjenga tower I am working hard to list it. Neither the Biden administration nor the Trump administration should think about anything other than the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and the recovery of Ukraine. 1991 border. All tools of national power – diplomatic, intelligence, military and economic – should be used to end the war on the best possible terms for Ukraine.
It will take a Mike Tyson-like punch in the face to get Putin to the negotiating table. The unrestricted use of precision depth strike weapons is part of the solution, a condition setting tool. Allow Ukraine too preventRussian and North Korean troops, equipment and ammunition in Russian seaports, airfields, railway points and assembly points before arriving on the battlefields of Ukraine. These capabilities give front-line Ukrainian forces more room to maneuver and could ultimately drive Russian forces out of their country.
The United States must harness the warrior spirit of Generals Patton and Grant to enable Ukraine to defeat the final Jenga piece of no-holds-barred, relentless pressure, and violent action.
Colonel (retired)Jonathan SweetHe served as an Army intelligence officer for 30 years.mark tothHe writes about national security and foreign policy.
