A top British military official says the world is now entering a third nuclear age, and that the world is now more dangerous than ever because the old solid logic of deterrence and avoiding “uncontrollable escalation” has been ignored. He said that the time has come.
Admiral Tony Radakkin, former First Sea Lord and now Chief of the Defense Staff, told the Royal Defense and Security Institute (RUSI) on Wednesday night that the global security situation was already in a state of decline for Britain. He said it was getting worse. But something even worse is happening in the field of nuclear security.
“The security outlook is more contentious, more ambiguous and more dangerous than we have known in our careers,” the top official said, adding that the world is now moving into a new paradigm. “The Third Nuclear Age is upon us,'' he told an audience of defense decision-makers. is approaching us. ”
Chronicling this development, Radakin said the first “nuclear age” was the Cold War era, a dangerous time but still dominated by a “logic of deterrence.” The two world powers at the time were restrained by a mutually understood guardrail of “the risk of uncontrollable escalation,” and each country “took its international responsibilities seriously.”
This was followed by a second era of “disarmament efforts and non-proliferation” from the 1990s onwards, he said. “Nuclear nonproliferation has been one of the great successes in international security since World War II,” Radakin said, adding that, ideally, the foundation of security guarantees that contribute to more stable states continues. claimed that it would be done.
Nevertheless, President Vladimir Putin has ushered in this “Third Nuclear Age,” the admiral said. We have seen threats, all aimed at forcing us into nuclear war.” We are taking the necessary steps to maintain stability. He argued that Russia is heading down this path because “President Putin believes in historical fiction.”
Other risk factors include China's nuclear buildup “to reshape the rules around its own interests,” which poses a challenge to the United States, Iran, and North Korea, which are increasingly becoming “global threats.” One example is that there are Radakin groups these as authoritarian states opposed to “the world's responsible states,” with a third group “hedging or running between the two to maximize their gains.” He pointed out that there are also countries.
Admiral Radakin said that as the most senior military officer outside the British royal family, he had a responsibility to “strengthen the country's resolve” by making tough statements and not just focusing on the positive. “To do that, we need to be frank about the threats we face,” he said, but his speech also drew on the benefits of the UK and the wider NATO alliance against emerging threats.
He said NATO spends more on defense than Russia and China combined, and while Europe and the US account for “half of the world's wealth,” Russia faces “economic and demographic decline.” He said he is doing so.
Although the UK is well-separated geographically from Russian aggression and has an independent nuclear deterrent, it is still significantly exposed to and weakened by the spillover effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The country has spent billions of pounds supplying weapons to Ukraine, but with soaring global energy prices due to Russia turning off gas taps, it will cost many times more to subsidize Britain's winter energy prices. It was expensive.
Radakin said:
We are also experiencing the effects of a more unstable world in very real ways. Our airspace and territorial waters, critical energy and digital infrastructure, and public discourse are all subject to interference. In cyberspace, the frequency of attacks on networks by both rogue individuals and nation states continues to accelerate.
And acts of arson and sabotage are being carried out across Europe, characterized by two heads of our country's intelligence agencies, quite bluntly calling it a “continuing mission to cause mayhem” and “beyond irresponsible.” characterized by an open manner.
But the effects of global instability are far-reaching. As a consumer through living expenses. As taxpayers, through the expenditure of energy subsidies. And we are seeing slow growth and stagnation across Europe as markets react to an increasingly uncertain world.
Mr Radakin said that as the New Left government decides on military spending and where and how much it spends, it faces major changes in Britain's defense posture ahead, regardless of whether there is a threat or perceived impact. , said deterrence remains key. Finally, the police officer said: “To ensure we avoid tragedy, we need to be aware of the risks of tragedy. And the risks of tragedy are increasing…The world is becoming more dangerous. The challenges are even greater.”
The admiral's comments, while alarming, seem more measured than the overtly alarmist claims about a coming World War III made by other top Western defense leaders in recent months. Ta. NATO Admiral Rob Bauer said European voters must be prepared to sacrifice some “luxuries” to fund Ukraine and their own militaries to prevent a “wartime scenario”. . As reported for other similar European positions at the time:
Poland, which would be right in the line of fire if Russia decides the Ukraine war has gone well and wants to start over elsewhere, is ahead of the NATO countries in this regard, with the head of the National Security Agency He said: December Europe only has three years to prepare.
Russia now needs to “regroup its forces,” he said, echoing Poland's view that if NATO is to successfully deter further Russian aggression, it must demonstrate that it can quickly counter new aggression. expressed.
Professor Katarzyna Pisarska of the Warsaw Security Forum also spoke on these points, saying that Europe will have to sacrifice some luxury to fund the transformation of its military into a reliable force that Russia will not seek to confront. Admiral Bauer's point was clearly stated. “This lifestyle of welfare state and prosperity under America's protective umbrella may become unsustainable under the costs of maintaining freedom,” she told a German newspaper. He said as follows.
“When should we start preparing for this scenario? We should have started yesterday…We can talk like Emmanuel Macron about “European autonomy”. But what does it mean? Could France station 10,000 soldiers in Poland tomorrow? Can Germany effectively defend NATO's eastern flank? A reliable deterrent is needed. Currently, only Americans can do that. ”
