The Chiefs continue to rope-a-dope their way to victory.
Next, you need to install the cover.
Kansas City is 5-7 against the spread this year and has failed to cover in four straight games.
The Chiefs are lined up to face the divisional rival Chargers as a four-point favorite, but Kansas City was originally tied with 6.5 points.
Coach Andy Reid's group will look to get the offense back on track, as its 5.2 yards per play is the 22nd-best mark in the NFL.
The Chiefs are also 24th in the league in yards per play over the last three games.
The Chargers, who boast the sixth-ranked defense in the league according to defensive adjusted value average (DVOA), won't have an easy offense.
Chargers vs. Chiefs odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| charger | +4 (-110) | +180 | 44.5 or higher (-110) |
| chiefs | -4 (-110) | -218 | Less than 44.5 (-110) |
Chargers vs. Chiefs predictions
Kansas City is nothing without a productive run game, and running back Isaiah Pacheco was limited in his return last Friday, so he should have a near full workload on Sunday.
The Chargers are considered to have a good defense against the pass, as their run defense ranks 15th in DVOA and their pass defense ranks 5th.
The Chiefs have dropped considerably in the DVOA rankings, dropping to 11th after staying in the top six for most of the season.
Los Angeles moved up to 8th place in DVOA.
Whether the run game suffers without J.K. Dobbins is another question for the Chargers to resolve, who also could be playing without up-and-coming receiver Rad McConkie.
Both injuries aren't good news for the Chargers, but Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal should fill in nicely at running back.
I also have seemingly blind faith in second-year receiver Quentin Johnston, who has had many nightmare games this year.
If McConkie doesn't play, I'm buying the dip and targeting Johnston to outpace his receiving yards prop. That's because the Chiefs' secondary has allowed 276.6 passing yards per game over the past three games, a dramatic increase from 226 yards previously. That year.
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A big reason for that is corner Jalen Watson was sidelined in Week 7 with an ankle injury.
I'm betting on the Chargers at +4, but don't be surprised if the Chiefs pull out another tough win.
Pick: Chargers +4 (-110, ESPN BET) | Quentin Johnston 35.5+ receiving yards (-115, ESPN BET)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Erich Richter is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu but has a black belt in mixed martial arts gambling. During football season, he proved to be a huge moneymaker for the Post in the player prop market the past two seasons. Always betting on the long shot, the return on investment from 2022 onwards is 30.15%.
