- Rising US Treasury yields are supporting the US dollar and keeping the yellow metal in check ahead of the US CPI report.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) extended its weekly uptrend for a third consecutive day on Wednesday, rising to a two-and-a-half week high during Asian trading. The product is currently looking to extend its momentum above the $2,700 mark, but remains well supported by a variety of factors. Geopolitical risks stemming from the worsening Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, as well as concerns about President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans, continue to drive demand for safe assets. In addition to this, expected interest rate cuts by major central banks are providing further support to the low-yielding yellow metal.
That said, recent gains in the U.S. dollar (USD) have reached an almost one-week high set on Tuesday, limiting further gains in USD-denominated gold prices. Additionally, bulls are opting to lighten their bets ahead of the release of U.S. consumer inflation data later today, which could guide Fed policymakers' decisions next week. There is. This in turn will impact the US dollar and provide new impetus to precious metals.一方、基本的な背景は、XAU/USD にとって最も抵抗が少ない道は上値であることを示唆しています。
Gold prices continue to gain support from haven inflows and bets on further interest rate cuts by major central banks
- Israel has launched airstrikes on military targets across Syria and deployed ground forces beyond the demilitarized buffer zone for the first time in 50 years, following the fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime over the weekend.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has issued an order to increase funding to equip brigades with new drones and raised the idea of sending foreign troops to Ukraine until it can join the NATO military alliance.
- President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to impose major tariffs on the United States' three largest trading partners, Mexico, Canada, and China, and has also threatened to impose 100% tariffs on the so-called BRICS countries. Ta.
- The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates later today, and the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank are likely to follow suit on Thursday, which will continue to support non-yielding gold prices.
- Markets are currently pricing in a more than 85% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points at its December policy meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
- However, recent hawkish statements by several influential FOMC members, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, suggested the U.S. central bank may take a more cautious stance on rate cuts.
- U.S. Treasury yields ended higher for the second day in a row on Tuesday on expectations that the Federal Reserve would ease its dovish stance, and the U.S. dollar hit a four-day high, but this could dampen the bullish mood for precious metals. was almost non-existent.
- Market attention remains riveted on the important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could provide clues about the US interest rate outlook and provide fresh impetus to low-yielding XAU/USD. .
- 米国の総合CPIは11月に0.3％上昇、年率ベースでは2.7％上昇すると予想されている。 Meanwhile, core indicators (excluding food and energy prices) are expected to remain flat at 3.3% year-on-year.
If the strong barrier between $2,720 and $2,722 is decisively overcome, gold prices may accelerate the upward trend.
From a technical perspective, bullish traders will benefit from a breakout of the $2,650-$2,655 supply zone this week and subsequent rally. Moreover, the oscillator on the daily chart has gained positive traction and is still far from overbought territory. This likewise confirms the positive near-term outlook for gold prices and supports the prospect of bullish buying near the aforementioned resistance breakpoints. This should help limit the downside of XAU/USD around $2,630, below which the downward trajectory could extend further towards the $2,600 round figure.
On the other hand, if the move continues above the $2,700 round number, it could extend further towards the $2,720-$2,722 hurdle. This is followed by resistance near $2,735, which, if cleared, would signal the end of the recent correctional decline from October's all-time highs and a shift in bias in favor of bullish traders. It will be suggested. This momentum could push gold prices up to the $2,770-$2,772 area and $2,790 area, or even the $2,758-$2,760 wall on its way to a record peak.
Gold FAQ
Gold has played an important role in human history as it has been widely used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Today, apart from their brilliance and use as jewellery, precious metals are widely seen as safe assets, meaning they are considered a good investment in turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation, as it is not dependent on any particular issuer or government.
Central banks are the largest holders of gold. With the aim of supporting their currencies in times of turmoil, central banks tend to purchase gold to diversify foreign exchange reserves and improve perceptions of economic and currency strength. High gold reserves can be a source of confidence in a country's solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest annual purchase amount since records began. Central banks in emerging countries such as China, India and Türkiye are rapidly increasing their gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse relationship with the US dollar and US Treasuries, which are major reserve and safe haven assets. Gold tends to rise when the dollar falls, allowing investors and central banks to diversify their assets during times of turmoil. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. Rising stock markets tend to push gold prices down, while declines in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
価格はさまざまな要因によって変動する可能性があります。 Geopolitical instability and fears of a deep recession can cause the price of gold to quickly rise from its safe-haven status. Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to rise when interest rates fall, but rising costs usually put pressure on the yellow metal. Still, most moves will depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong dollar tends to suppress gold prices, while a weak dollar can push up gold prices.
