It wasn't that long ago that Russell Wilson was an albatross for the Denver Broncos, and they benched him to avoid having to pay him more money in the future. Now that the season of redemption is over, pittsburgh steelersWilson is in line to cash in again.
Wilson is already the fourth-highest paid player in NFL history, and even a mediocre contract could move him past Tom Brady for third place on the list.
But how do you establish a market value for Wilson, a player who will be paid the league minimum salary by the Steelers in 2024 and whose former team was paying him? Will he tear up his previous contract, which the Broncos were willing to pay just to fire him, or do something else?
Equivalent cap on Russell Wilson's new contract
Let's start with Wilson's age. The QB just turned 36 this season, so he's not going to sign a long-term contract at the top of the market like players in their 20s have done in recent offseasons. He's more in line with the contracts of Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Kirk Cousins. No one is in the top 10 in terms of average annual income.
Russell Wilson's 2022 contract
- Age at time of contract: 34
- Duration: 5 years
- Average amount: $48.5 million/season
- Fully guaranteed: $124 million (first three seasons)
- Additional information: Broncos also sent trade compensation seahawks
- 2021 stats: 64.8% success rate, 7.8 yards per attempt, 222.4 yards per game, 103.1 rating (Pro Bowl)
Matthew Stafford's 2022 contract
- Age at time of contract: 34
- Duration: 4 years
- Average amount: $40 million/season ($44.5 million/year in first two seasons)
- Fully guaranteed: $63 million ($89 million for first two years)
- Additional information: $57 million rolling guarantee from 2023 offseason through 2024 season
- 2021 stats: 67% success rate, 8.1 yards per attempt, 287.4 yards per game, 102.8 rating.
Aaron Rodgers' 2023 contract
- Age at time of contract: 39 years old
- Duration: 3 years
- Average amount: $37.5 million/season
- Fully guaranteed: $75 million (first 2 years)
- Additional information: Jets had to send trade compensation to Green Bay
- 2022 stats: 64.6% success rate, 6.8 yards per attempt, 217.4 yards per game, 91.1 rating (MVP in 2020 and 2021)
Kirk Cousins’ 2024 contract
- Age at start of season: 36
- Duration: 4 years
- Average amount: $45 million/season
- Fully guaranteed: $90 million (first 2 years)
- Additional information: He was the only one of the three to sign as a free agent.
- 2023 stats: 69.5% success rate, 7.5 yards per attempt, 291.4 yards per game, 103.8 rating (only played in 8 games due to Achilles injury)
Russell Wilson's current numbers
- Age at time of contract: 36
- 2024 stats (as of this writing): 64.7% success rate, 8.1 yards per attempt, 239 yards per game, 103 rating.
Possible points from 4 contracts
Wilson's 2024 numbers are in line with other older quarterbacks, and when you combine these four contract details, he's around $40-45 million per year with two years guaranteed, plus a year or two with the team. Options will be added. end. Like Cousins, Wilson could hit the free agent market, so he could average out a little more.
Also, let me be incredibly clear: the only trade on this list that worked for the signing team was the Stafford trade. To get there, the Rams also had to survive a very weak 2022 season.
Equivalent floor for Russell Wilson's new contract
Wilson will be signed somewhere as a starter, so he will need a super low amount of money. This establishes his absolute floor at the Jacoby Brissett-Bridge quarterback level of $8 million, which is so unrealistically low that he's not even going to break through.
Geno Smith's 2023 contract
- Age at time of contract: 33
- Duration: 3 years
- Average amount: $25 million/season
- Fully guaranteed: $27.3 million (first year only)
- Additional information: Plays in Seattle in 2022 on a one-year, $3.5 million contract.
- 2022 stats: 69.8% success rate, 7.5 yards per attempt, 251.9 yards per game, 100.9 rating.
Kirk Cousins’ 2022 contract
- Age at start of season: 36
- Length: one season
- Average amount: $35 million/season
- Fully guaranteed: $35 million
- Additional information: Since he was already under contract for 2022, this contract added a fully guaranteed year in 2023, ostensibly making it a two-year, $70 million fully guaranteed contract.
- 2021 stats: 66.3% success rate, 7.5 yards per attempt, 263.8 yards per game, 103.1 rating (Pro Bowl)
Possible points from two contracts
Smith, who came over from his own reclamation project in Seattle, wanted to stay in 2023, especially since teams had ample opportunity to select a QB in the NFL Draft. Three of the top four picks were quarterbacks, and the other was selected 33rd overall. This cemented quarterback's middle-class status, which was later taken by Baker Mayfield, although he is much younger.
Cousins' contract called for multiple years of fully guaranteed money, rather than making him a true free agent. Wilson's two-year, $70 million contract will likely make his new team pretty happy.
This puts the absolute floor on Wilson the Smith's contract at $25 million per season, but given Wilson's much more established track record, it's hard to believe he'll at least make Cousins/Vikings money. I think that's reasonable.
What will happen to the quarterback market?
The QB market will definitely be attractive this offseason.
Which teams could end up with a QB-deficient starting roster?
Let's say the 49ers have no problem keeping Brock Purdy around despite him going down, and the Panthers stick with what they saw from Bryce Young. Aaron Rodgers has said he wants to come back and be with the Jets, but their situation is so uncertain that I'd rather keep them here.
2025 NFL Draft quarterback predictions
The 2024 NFL Draft had several players selected in the top 12, but the 2025 NFL Draft is likely to be much leaner. Only one QB may be available in the first round, so if a team wants a new QB, they should consider free agency.
Six teams are looking for a starting quarterback, and one NFL Draft candidate could step into the role (and it would be argued that he needs some seasoning anyway) .
2025 NFL Free Agent Quarterback Class
There will be at least some competition alongside Wilson on the free agent market. If the Jets need a quarterback, Aaron Rodgers is theoretically available after he's released, so they're going to use him here. There are some very interesting starting level options here.
Current free agents and Rodgers are:
- aaron rodgers
- Sam Darnold
- Justin Fields
- Joe Flacco
- Jameis Winston
- jimmy garoppolo
Kirk Cousins could be seen on the trade market alongside Bryce Young, Gardner Minshew, and Aiden O'Connell.
Who on this list will take over Wilson's play in 2024? Perhaps the list starts with Darnold in Minnesota's QB-friendly system with three good receiving weapons and a running game, and with Darnold. It will end.
Russell Wilson contract predictions for the 2025 offseason
$135 million over 3 years
$95 million guarantee, including 2 years
This is higher than I expected when I started writing this article, but the lack of mid-major starters in the draft and free agent market works in Wilson's favor, and he's one of the best players. I think it will be. .
The Steelers have plenty of cap space to accomplish this. That's because they prepared their roster for an eventual extension after drafting Kenny Pickett at the top of the draft, and then only paid Wilson $1.2 million in 2024. If these two teams can match linguistically, it will be felt. As if it were a given.
Wilson will be with the Giants in the 2024 offseason, and they will want an established starting pitcher if Brian Daboll and Joe Schon are given another year. The same goes for Tom Telesco and the Las Vegas Raiders, but with Tom Brady stepping into a role with the organization, the window of desperation could be even longer.
With $95 million guaranteed, he will eventually earn more than $400 million in his career, putting him at least third on the career earnings list behind Rodgers and Stafford. Cousins is now following in his footsteps.
It's clear he intends to attract suitors and make money this offseason.
