A measure of future economic activity rose in November as the U.S. economy reacted to President-elect Donald J. Trump's victory, breaking nearly three years of decline.
The Conference Board's leading economic index, released Thursday, rose 0.3% last month after falling 0.4% in October. The rebound exceeded economists' expectations for a further 0.1% decline, according to an Econoday survey.
The index, which aggregates data from indicators such as stock prices, building permits and initial claims for unemployment insurance, rose as stock prices rose and building permits recovered. The labor market also contributed, with an increase in average working hours in manufacturing and a decline in claims for unemployment benefits.
“Overall, the rise in the LEI is a positive sign for future economic activity in the United States,” said Justina Zabinska La Monica, senior manager at the Conference Board.
November's rally came after Trump's surprise victory in the Nov. 8 presidential election, sparking optimism across all sectors. Analysts said the president-elect's pledges to cut taxes, deregulate, expand energy policy, tighten trade deals backed by tariffs and invest in infrastructure are helping boost business confidence.
The Conference Board said the increase meant the LEI no longer signaled an imminent recession. This index typically predicts changes in the business cycle about seven months in advance.
