With the exception of perhaps China, no issue is more important to the incoming Trump administration's foreign policy agenda than Russia.
Over the past three years, relations between the two countries have plunged to a depth of hostility not seen since the darkest days of the Cold War. Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine has made Russia and its president Vladimir Putin politically toxic in Washington. Ad hoc phone calls between high-level officials to avert a crisis are no substitute for ongoing, substantive dialogue between the world's two leading nuclear powers.
There is an urgent need to restore more normal diplomatic relations. This is not a request for a reset. Resetting is neither possible nor desirable. Conflicts of interest are too serious to consider otherwise. Rather, the challenge is to transform dangerous rivalries into relationships of competitive coexistence in which conflicting geopolitical interests can be managed responsibly. Achieving that goal requires skill, persistence, perseverance, and determination.
To his credit, President-elect Trump shown He stated that he hopes to restore relations to at least the extent to which the Russia-Ukraine war can be resolved in the short term. He said progress will not be fast and goals will not be achieved unless it is integrated into Russia's broader agenda, which includes issues such as strategic stability, European security, the Middle East, Northeast Asia, the Arctic and energy markets. You'll notice that. The new administration will need not only a Russia-Ukraine war strategy but also a Russia policy.
It takes time. President Trump should resist the temptation to meet directly with President Putin early. Russia's rulers would welcome such as evidence that Western efforts to diplomatically isolate him have failed. Mr. Trump must be hoping to get something in return for taking that step. That should come in the form of a substantive summit outcome that advances the relationship while promoting U.S. interests. That is not possible without adequate preparation. At the same time, President Trump needs to signal at an early stage that he intends to resume regular dialogue.
So how should the new government proceed?
Immediately after taking office, the new president should call President Putin and convey two messages. The first is that the United States does not seek a strategic defeat or regime change in Russia. Rather, the United States recognizes that Russia remains a pillar of the future world order. For this reason, the two countries need to restore more normal diplomatic relations. And second, we need to communicate that while a summit is desirable, it should not take place until the presidents of both countries can announce an agreed framework for managing the relationship and resolving the conflict in Ukraine.
With that in mind, the Prime Minister should send Keith Kellogg, Russia and Ukraine's special envoy, to Moscow to begin preparations, including agreeing a summit date by summer 2025. The proposed topics are as follows.
- European Security/Ukraine. Kellogg should bring ideas on how to stabilize the long NATO/Russia border, which currently stretches from the Barents Sea to the Black Sea, and how to defuse the escalating hybrid war between Russia and the West. He also needs to present an interim framework for resolving the Russia-Ukraine war.
- Strategic stability. It is too late to develop a treaty to follow the New START agreement. Expiration date is February 2026. But the two countries have a common interest in agreeing on how to manage their future nuclear relationship. The two countries, which have the deepest experience in nuclear issues and strategic thinking, should begin joint work on a new concept of strategic stability that takes into account the changing strategic landscape and new technologies.
- middle east. Widespread instability in the region raises mutual concerns such as nuclear proliferation, a resurgence of terrorism, and energy security. of Ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Reversing Russia's policy in the region will only fuel instability.
- Northeast Asia. Russian New defense relationship with North Korea Affecting the stability of the Korean Peninsula. To ensure deterrence, the United States should make clear to Russia, and especially to its allies Japan and South Korea, what it is doing in the region.
- North Pole. and opening of the arctic Due to the effects of global warming, both countries need to discuss how to deal with the increasing security competition there.
The two countries will then address these issues in order to achieve a substantive summit.
President Trump should meet with key US allies before meeting with President Putin. Engaging allies in a broader approach toward Russia will strengthen U.S. influence ahead of the U.S.-Russia summit.
Finally, the two presidents should meet. They should be able to announce a framework for managing U.S.-Russian relations and resolving the Russia-Ukraine war. These frameworks form the core of the joint statement. However, when I turned the page from there, 1972 Shanghai CommuniquéThe joint statement, which laid the foundation for the restoration of relations between the United States and China, needs to clearly set out the points of contention between the two countries. As in previous communiqués, openly and clearly articulating differences will further strengthen the credibility of the few agreed areas of cooperation.
There is a long road ahead to build a less dangerous U.S.-Russia relationship after the summit, but at least there is a way forward.
Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, was the senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff during the George W. Bush administration. his new book,“Understanding Russia correctly” is now available from Politi.
