China and India have sought to defuse a tense military standoff along their mountainous border in recent weeks. A protracted standoff sparked by China's covert incursions into India's icy border region of Ladakh in 2020 prompted rival military buildups and intermittent collision Along the Himalayas.
October 23rd meeting On the sidelines of the BRICS summit, talks between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping highlighted a mutual interest in improving relations between the Asian powers. surely, agreement Agreement was reached on mutual steps to resolve the military standoff and ensure peace along the disputed border, one of the world's longest land borders.
But is it possible unzipAmid the icy hostility that characterizes bilateral relations, is the strategic rivalry between China and India that defines Asia's geopolitics slowing down?
Tensions date back to the early 1950s, when China occupied then-autonomous Tibet (a vast region that had historically served as a state) and imposed itself as India's neighbor. buffer between Chinese civilization and Indian civilization. This annexation led to the 1962 border war between China and India. After Mao Zedong's death in 1976, the two countries restored diplomatic relations, but despite efforts to establish a viable system, mutual distrust and hostility persisted.
In recent years, India has tasted the bitter fruits of Prime Minister Modi's early efforts. appease China. China's territorial incursions in 2020 caught India unawares at a time when the country was preoccupied with enforcing one of the world's strictest lockdowns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. caused.
Mr. Modi took office in 2014 as a foreign policy novice. He believed that resetting relations with China could contribute to weakening the strategic alliance between China and Pakistan. Pakistan as well as China revisionist stateIt claims a large area of Indian territory. But Pakistan also employs cross-border terrorism as a foreign policy instrument.
The China-Pakistan axis has long created high security costs for India, raising fears of a two-front war. through “”defensive wedge strategy'', where status quo powers seek to split revisionist alliances and concentrate their capabilities on more threatening challengers, while India has long tried unsuccessfully to break out of the China-Pakistan axis. It's finished.
Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the first prime minister of Prime Minister Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, famously went to Pakistan in an attempt to persuade it. by bus In contrast, Mr. Modi has made several changes since taking power, including welcoming Mr. Xi ahead of other world leaders and opening up India's economy to Chinese companies by removing China from the list of “countries of concern.” He focused on building friendships with China.
However, Prime Minister Modi's peace proposal backfired spectacularly. Xi visited 2014 brought India an unusual gift: deep Chinese military incursions into India's border areas. This was followed by a larger military conflict between China and India in 2017 on the Doklam Plateau, located at the triangulation point between Bhutan, Tibet, and India. And China's 2020 violation came despite 18 meetings between Mr. Modi and Mr. Xi in the past five years.
After putting India on a rollercoaster ride against China, PM Modi has injected more pragmatism into his policies. military modernization and strengthen border defenses.
As the military confrontation has highlighted, India remains committed to working closely with China despite the risk of all-out war. open challenge China's capabilities and power are unlike any other nation in this century. Indeed, President Xi made the grave miscalculation that China would be able to impose a changed status quo on India as a fait accompli without inviting a strong military response.
This confrontation has only accentuated Mr. Xi's position. strategic myopia It has turned a once-accommodating India into an enemy seemingly determined to stop a China-centered Asia. with Mr. Xi blame The United States forbids “containment, encirclement, and oppression against us from all directions,” and what China most needed to do was enemy of its largest neighbor.
This is similar to how President Xi's forceful revisionism has prompted major changes in the strategic postures of the other two major Indo-Pacific countries. By deciding to double its defense spending by 2027, Japan effectively abandon Postwar pacifist security policy and Australia end hedge By joining the US-led anti-China alliance “AUKUS”.
Currently, efforts by China and India to de-escalate tensions and disengage forces massed along their common border are driven by a variety of geopolitical factors.
One consideration for India, despite President Joe Biden, is to become more agile in its foreign policy now that its once blossoming strategic partnership with the United States is beginning to fray. admit He said the relationship was “one of the most significant in the world.”
China also faces increasing Western opposition to its expansionism. economically already sputteringChina faces the following long-term growth constraints:Population decline and rapid aging and slowing productivity growth. In contrast, India is one of the most developed countries in the world. youthful group with median age 28.4 – seems poised to reap the demographic benefits. Although India's economy is still smaller than China's, it is now grow faster more than any other significant economy.
On the other hand, the People's Liberation Army of China mainly depend on India's all-volunteer military is thought to be the most experienced in the world when it comes to conscription, where people ostensibly “volunteer” for two years of military service at the age of 18. force In hybrid mountain warfare. indian military edge However, in the high Himalayan environment, it could be blunted by China's superior airpower capabilities, including missile capabilities.
Against this backdrop, Mr. Xi and Mr. Modi have been trying to defuse the Himalayan military crisis without losing face. Although easing tensions along the border makes perfect sense for leaders of both countries, the conflict between China and India is unlikely to abate. Indeed, this conflict promises to shape the balance of power in Asia and the world.
Brahma Chellaney is a geostrategist and author of nine books, including an award-winning book.“Water: Asia’s New Battlefield.”
