The odds of Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) going public in the U.S. this year are even higher than the optimistic predictions of the general gambling market, according to Matthew Siegel, head of research at VanEck.
On January 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket said the probability of the U.S. Solana ETF going public in 2025 is about 77%. Siegel said in a post on the X Platform that Polymarket's forecast is “undervalued.”
Siegel’s optimism reflects industry-wide expectations for more crypto ETF listings in the U.S. following President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the November election. Trump, a cryptocurrency advocate, has said he wants to make the United States the “crypto capital of the world.”
Prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices changing dynamically based on expected outcomes. According to the website, Polymarket's expected ETF listing odds have increased to approximately 84% as of January 2nd.
sauce: Polymarket
Related: Betting market predicts bullishness for cryptocurrencies in 2025
Good prospects for listing
In June, 21Shares, an asset management company that competes with VanEck, asked U.S. regulators for permission to list the Spot Solana ETF.
In August, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly challenged the asset manager's plan, citing concerns that SOL would qualify as a security rather than a commodity.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs (the only two cryptocurrency ETFs allowed to trade on U.S. exchanges) are typically intended for funds that passively hold a single type of instrument. It employs a designed, atypical “grantor trust” structure. Issuers say success may depend on whether the proposed Solana ETF can fit into a similar structure.
Industry analysts believe Trump's presidential victory could be a green light for at least half a dozen crypto ETFs to list in the U.S., pending regulatory approval.
In November, shortly after Trump won the U.S. presidential election, Siegel reportedly said the odds that the U.S. would greenlight the SOL ETF in 2025 were now “overwhelmingly high.”
sauce: Polymarket
bullish bettor
According to data from Dune Analytics, Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, with trading volume reaching nearly $2 billion in December alone.
During the November US election, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polls, predicting not only Trump's victory but also his party's sweep of the House and Senate.
Bettors are betting that 2025 will be a great year for the crypto market, with BTC and ETH hitting new all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs being listed in the US. There is.
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