Since the Israel-Hamas war began in October 2023, China has taken advantage of the conflict to criticize not only Israel, but also the United States and its position in the region.
For years, Chinese diplomats have treaded cautiously. centrist In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he adjusts his language to avoid hurting either side too much. But as the conflict has dragged on over the past year and criticism of the United States in the region has grown, Beijing has sensed an opportunity to strengthen its own position while weakening the United States.
Chinese officials have regularly omitted mention of Hamas atrocities and have accused Israel and the United States of supporting Hamas. In September, China's representative to the United Nations slammed He claimed the US was “protecting” Israel and called on the US government to take a “responsible attitude” regarding the conflict. painting It is believed that its own efforts more closely reflect the consensus of the “majority of countries.''
But now, with the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the United States is being presented with a similar opportunity. For years, the Chinese government has consistently sided with President Bashar al-Assad in his brutal crackdown on dissidents. 2023, Xi Jinping hosted In Beijing, the Syrian leader and his wife pledged deeper ties and “jointly defending international fairness and justice.”
The calculation of Chinese government support was twofold.
First, external intervention in other Arab Spring revolutions, such as Libya, scared the Chinese government. principle “Non-interference” and “respect for sovereignty.” China has consistently exercised the right of veto UN Security Council resolutions have criticized the regime or been contrary to Russia's and the regime's interests, often citing the principle of non-interference as justification.
Another is that China's own internal security faced challenges as violent extremist groups came to mark the battlefields of Syria. China's Uyghurs began flock together He traveled to Syria in 2013 to fight and train other violent extremist groups. Although exact numbers are difficult to obtain, at one point Syrian officials claimed There were approximately 5,000 Uyghur fighters in the country. The Chinese government has long feared that these fighters would return home and stoke unrest.
In the wake of Assad's ouster, the Chinese government is scrambling to readjust its message. Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson called It called for stability and expressed China's desire that “Syria's future and destiny should be determined by the Syrian people.” Chinese state media changed its coverage labeling It labeled the Syrian rebels as “terrorists” and “rebel forces.”
China will undoubtedly seek to put itself in the position of whatever governing authority emerges in Syria. In addition to recognition and reconstruction assistance, Beijing could provide a friendly voice should the new Syrian leadership seek support from non-Western countries.
China's diplomacy in the Middle East is not agile: Beijing in 2023 mediated Diplomatic agreement signed between Iran and Saudi Arabia after years of hostility, Chinese diplomats have repeatedly said I tried it They are committed to harmony within Palestine. China will not want its increased position in the region to go to waste. The Chinese government will likely try to gain understanding from whoever emerges in the coming months.
But that hill may be a tougher climb than the Chinese government hopes. Many Syrians rightly blame Russia and Iran for allowing the Assad regime to remain in power for so many years. Although China has not been as involved in Syria as Russia or Iran, it has grown closer to both countries in recent years.
Furthermore, Russia's invasion of Ukraine placed undue strain on the economy and military, creating overdependence on China, Iran, and North Korea. Many Syrians may be averse to embracing China too closely, given its ties with Moscow and Tehran. It also presents an opportunity for the United States and other Western powers to drive a wedge between Syria's new government and its traditional supporters.
The incoming Trump administration has a unique opportunity. Trump might be believe While Syria is “not our fight,” competition with China is our problem and will undoubtedly be a focus of the administration. Here in Syria, there is an opportunity for the United States to advance its position at the expense of China.
The Chinese government is eyeing Middle Eastern countries to prove its status as a world power. China may not be trying to replace the US in the Middle East, but increase Strengthening economic, diplomatic, and security ties in an attempt to draw regional leaders and populations away from the United States
In recent months, U.S. support for Israel has been like an arrow to China. Now the United States has its own.
Grant Lumley is director of the Diane Guilford Glaser Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Previously, he served as Middle East Policy Advisor in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
