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UK house prices dip for first time since March, says Halifax; Next warns of slowing sales growth in 2025 – business live | Business

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UK house prices finished 2024 up 3.3% over the year, with the average property value falling slightly in December, according to a major mortgage lender.

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The average house cost £297,166, down by 0.2% in December from November, following five consecutive monthly increases, according to Halifax. The annual rate slowed from 4.7% in November.

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Northern Ireland showed the strongest annual house price growth in the UK, up 7.4%, to an average of £205,895.

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House prices in Wales were up 4.6% year on year, with properties costing £226,646, on average. In Scotland, the annual rate was lower than in the rest of the UK, 2.4% to an average £209,959.

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London retains the highest average house price across the country, at £547,614, up 3.3% year on year.

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Despite the slowdown, Matt Thompson, head of sales at the estate agent Chestertons, said:

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December 2024 was one of the busiest Decembers in years in terms of buyer demand. This was driven by first-time buyers who were keen to get on the property ladder before this year’s changes to Stamp Duty but also by second-steppers, including young families, wanting to upsize.

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Next has upped its annual profit forecast by £5m after stronger than expected sales online, particularly overseas. However, it also warned that sales growth will slow this year, and said it will need to raise prices due to the impact of recent budget measures.

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The UK fashion and homewares retailer faces a £67m increase in its wage costs in the year to January 2026, and said it will need to push through an “unwelcome” 1% rise in prices as well as operational efficiencies and other cost savings to offset the hit. This will affect sales, it said.

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We believe that UK growth is likely to slow, as employer tax increases, and their potential impact on prices and employment, begin to filter through into the economy.

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Next reported a 5.7% rise in sales for the nine weeks to 28 December, excluding the impact of a change in timing of its annual discount event, our retail correspondent Sarah Butler reports. It now expects profits for the year to the end of January to rise by 10% to just over £1bn for the first time.

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Sales online, including Next branded items and its Label selection of other well-know brands, rose by 6.1% and overseas online sales were up by more than 30% but sales in stores fell by 2.1%.

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Next is expected to be among the festive winners as fashion retailers had been expected to have endured a tough end to the year as a mild autumn led to widespread discounting across the high street. The retailer is known for holding out on discounting until late in the season and so may have benefited more from the late arrival of colder weather as well as its strong online service.

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We are expecting a flurry of economic data today.

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The Agenda

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    8.30am GMT: Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy HCOB Construction PMI for December

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    9am GMT: Italy Unemployment rate for November (previous: 5.8%)

  • \n

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    10am GMT: Eurozone inflation for December flash (previous: 2.2%, forecast: 2.4%)

  • \n

  • \n

    10am GMT: Eurozone unemployment rate for November (previous: 6.3%)

  • \n

  • \n

    1.30pm GMT: US Trade for November

  • \n

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    3pm GMT: US ISM Services PMI for December

  • \n

  • \n

    3pm GMT: US JOLTs Job Openings for November

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main events

amanda brydensaid a mortgage loan officer in Halifax.

The housing market was generally stable in early 2024, with home price increases starting in the summer. In the second half of the year, home prices rose on the back of lower mortgage rates, alongside rising incomes, relieving some of the financial pressure on buyers. The impending changes to the stamp duty threshold are also giving potential first-time buyers further incentive to get on the housing ladder and bring forward their homebuying plans. The combination of these factors meant that demand for mortgages rose, reaching its highest level in more than two years and returning to pre-pandemic levels.

In many parts of the country, home prices also rose due to demand outstripping supply, but perhaps even more so as homeowners refrained from putting their properties on the market in anticipation of further reductions in mortgage rates. It may have been amplified.

What does this mean for the housing market in 2025? The housing market has been supported in recent months by lower mortgage rates, income growth and the announcement of upcoming stamp duty policy changes, particularly the reduction in bank rates. Mortgage affordability will continue to be a challenge for many, as the economic downturn is likely to be more moderate than in the past. I predicted it. However, unless the employment situation deteriorates significantly from the recent softening, buyer demand should remain relatively strong, and all things considered, we expect home prices to continue to rise modestly this year.

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introduction:

good morning. Welcome to our regular coverage of business, financial markets and the global economy.

House prices in the UK will rise by 3.3% in 2024 compared to the previous year, with the average property price falling slightly in December, a major mortgage finance company said.

Halifax said the average house price was £297,166, down 0.2% in December compared to November, after five consecutive months of increases. The annual rate slowed from November's 4.7%.

Northern Ireland had the highest annual growth in house prices in the UK, rising by 7.4% to an average of £205,895.

House prices in Wales rose by 4.6% year-on-year, with property prices averaging £226,646. In Scotland, the annual rate was lower than in the rest of the UK at 2.4% on an average of £209,959.

London continues to have the highest average house price in the country, rising 3.3% year-on-year to £547,614.

Despite slowing down, matt thompsonA sales manager at real estate agency Chestertons said:

December 2024 was one of the busiest Decembers in recent years in terms of buyer demand. This is being driven by first-time buyers looking to get on the property ladder before this year's stamp duty changes, as well as second-time buyers including young families looking to scale up. Ta.

Next has revised its full-year profit forecast up by £5m after online sales, particularly overseas, were better than expected. However, it warned that sales growth would slow this year and said recent budgetary measures would necessitate price increases.

UK fashion and homewares retailer faces £67m increase in staff costs in the year to January 2026, to be offset by 'undesirable' 1% price rise and operational efficiencies He said there was a need to press ahead with other cost reductions. hit. This will impact sales, the company said.

We believe that UK growth is likely to slow as the rise in employer tax and its potential price and employment impacts begin to filter through the economy.

Next reported a 5.7% increase in sales for the nine weeks to Dec. 28, excluding the impact of the rescheduled timing of its annual discount event. Our retail correspondent Sarah Butler reports. The company now expects profits to rise 10% for the year to the end of January to just over £1bn for the first time.

Online sales, which include Next-branded items and Label selections from other well-known brands, increased 6.1% and international online sales increased more than 30%, while in-store sales decreased 2.1%.

Fashion retailers are expected to be next in line to be the winners of the festival, having endured a tough year-end with widespread discounts taking place across the downtown area thanks to a mild autumn. The retailer is known for holding discounts late in the season, so it may have benefited even more from the late onset of cold weather and its strong online service.

It is expected that many economic indicators will be announced today.

agenda

  • 8:30am (GMT): Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy December HCOB Construction PMI

  • 9am (GMT): Italy November unemployment rate (previous: 5.8%)

  • 10:00 a.m. (GMT): Eurozone December inflation rate report (previous: 2.2%, forecast: 2.4%)

  • 10am (GMT): Eurozone unemployment rate in November (previously: 6.3%)

  • 1:30pm GMT: US Trade in November

  • 3pm GMT: US ISM Services PMI for December

  • 3:00 PM GMT: US JOLT job openings for November

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