Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his generals are skilled at throwing the Russian military off balance. On Sunday, they resumed their offensive in Russia's Kursk Oblast, again catching the Russian High Command, the Kremlin, and many experts by surprise.
Reports of demoralized Ukrainian troops (at least 40% lost) fighting to hold onto the territory captured during the August Kursk offensive have been circulating in Western media and Russian milbloggers since November. Ukraine's 155th Mechanized Brigade, trained and equipped by France, also reportedly lacked “first-person drones or sufficient resources.”[ly] trained pilot. '' Also, 50 soldiers deserted from their unit during training in France, and 1,700 soldiers refused orders to transfer to their unit.
Nevertheless, as General George Patton once said, “When in doubt, attack!” And that's exactly what Ukraine did on three fronts: southern Berdin, central Ruskoye Porechnoye, and central Novosotnitsky. .
Ukraine is using British-supplied Challenger 2 tanks and extensive electronic warfare operations to blind Russian drones and allow engineers to open lanes in minefields and make it easier to advance. The success or failure of the new attack remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: it has caught the Kremlin's attention.
And the incoming Trump administration will probably take notice.
President-elect Donald Trump's incoming special envoy to Ukraine, retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, recently postponed a fact-finding visit to Kiev and other European capitals until after Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin hastily dispatched Kursk General Yunis-Bek Yevkurov, one of President Vladimir Putin's top generals, to organize and lead Russia's defense. Yevkurov was promoted by President Putin in December and was tasked with managing “Russia's border defense and African mercenary projects.”
Given the recent loss of Syrian airfields and ports, operations in Africa have more or less ceased. This allowed the general to take on emergency missions.
But it doesn't matter whether President Putin, General Valery Gerasimov, or Defense Minister Andrei Belousov takes command. Considering the level of talent and training given to conscripts, mobilized reservists, penal colony settlers, and foreign fighters, Russian marine “flesh attack” tactics remain the Kremlin's first resort.
Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905 (Mosin-Nagan three-line rifle), World War I (Degtyaryov machine gun), Korean War (T -54/55 tanks and PT-76 tanks), dilapidated storage Plucked from institutions, movie studios, and museums.
As former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld once said, “You go to war with the troops you have, not the troops you later want or might want to have.” This is what Evkurov has to deal with.
The Russian military continues to wage a war of attrition, mobilizing infantry and artillery forces. North Korea has both in abundance, and its leader, Kim Jong-un, is equally callous when it comes to the lives of his soldiers and his people. North Korea's M1989 Koksan self-propelled howitzer, which was initially reported to have been first seen traveling towards Russia aboard a rail car in November, is now “in combat.” ” has been shown to be.
Moscow's “try harder” approach will only lead to more casualties. On Tuesday, Russian casualties exceeded 800,000 (1,970 on this day). These numbers now include more than 3,800 North Korean casualties and countless foreign fighters from Chechnya.
President Putin, Chairman Kim and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov don't care. Their main focus remains the complete destruction of Ukraine, its people and culture.
The Russians have sought to make up for their battlefield failures by repeatedly attacking civilian settlements across Ukraine. The Russian government has been carrying out attacks using ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, and drones from sanctuary areas designated by the Biden administration in Russia's interior.
Although modern weapons of war are used to target civilians, brutal violence remains the primary course of action in close combat. But slowly, and at a terrible cost to human lives on both sides, Russian troops are gradually advancing towards Krahov, Tretsk, Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk.
There could be several possible rationales for Sunday's new attack in Kursk. One would be to force the Russian military to redeploy troops from Donbass to prevent further losses of Russian territory. Another possibility could be a pre-emptive strike against a joint Russian-North Korean offensive to dislodge Ukrainian troops from Kursk.
It could also be an opportunity for intelligence agencies to exploit what they perceive to be vulnerabilities. The idea is that North Korea's detachments will increasingly lose their combat capabilities, effectively weakening Russia's defenses.
Or, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday, Ukraine's position in Kursk could be critical to future negotiations. “Their position in Kursk is important because it certainly will be a factor in any negotiations that might come to fruition next year,” Blinken said.
The best answer is all of the above, but probably more.
The Ukrainian military suffered an average of 1,180 casualties per day in 2024, with 2,030 casualties on November 29 alone, but has been unable to stop the flow of Russian troops and equipment into Ukraine. do not have. It's Groundhog Day for soldiers in the trenches, who fight off relentless ground attacks multiple times a day before returning to their next fighting position. Defense is the rule in Donbass.
You can change it by blocking it. As we have written many times, it provides Ukraine with precision depth-strike weapons to target and destroy equipment, weapons, and ammunition in assembly areas of Russian, North Korean, and Chechen forces before they enter Ukraine. This would provide room for maneuver for subsequent offensive operations. .
Ukraine defeats Russia by defeating the masses. Interdiction would defeat the masses and create the conditions for expelling Russia from Ukraine.
Ukraine can only win the war through offensive operations supported by the United States and NATO.
Security is meaningless for Ukraine, as the 1994 Budapest Memorandum proves. Victory would solve the Russia problem, but it is not a peace plan and President Putin has no intention of respecting it. President Putin has made it clear that he wants to destroy Ukraine.
Mr. Zelensky understands that. Now Kellogg must convince Trump.
Resumption of ground attacks in Kursk Oblast and recent deep strikes by unmanned aircraft targeting Crystal oil storage facilities near Engels Airfield, as well as two Russian anti-missile Pantsir-S1 systems and one OSA anti-aircraft vehicle in Kherson Oblast The destruction of the platform is proof of this. Ukraine can fight Russia, and Kiev will not succumb to blatant Russian aggression.
Patton famously spoke these words to soldiers of the U.S. Third Army in 1944. “Americans love winners and don't tolerate losers. Americans always play to win.” A peace agreement with Putin is essentially a draw, if not a strategic loss. It's time for America to get back to the business of winning.
Colonel (retired)Jonathan SweetHe served as an Army intelligence officer for 30 years.mark tothHe writes about national security and foreign policy.
