Amid intense pressure to take Kursk back from Russian and North Korean forces, Ukraine is leaning toward efforts to maintain Russian territory in Kursk, apparently making the area a valuable card in potential negotiations with Russia. He seems to be betting that there is.
After weeks of Russian and North Korean advances on Kursk, Ukraine launched a small offensive Sunday to push troops back and maintain control of the roughly 300 square miles that Ukrainian forces still hold. .
With less than two weeks to go until President-elect Trump takes office after promising to negotiate an end to the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has decided to use Kursk as both a strategic necessity and a bargaining chip, despite persistent doubts about the operation. He seems to be focusing on his attacks. tactical value.
President Zelenskiy called Operation Kursk, which began with a surprise attack in August and saw Russia invaded by a foreign ally for the first time since World War II, “one of our greatest victories, not just last year but throughout the entire war.” I called it.
“Russia had to withdraw about 60,000 troops from the Ukrainian front to deal with this. As of Monday of this week, it has been 5 years since our troops maintained a buffer zone within Russian territory. A month has passed.” he wrote on Thursday on social platform X.
Although Ukraine is likely to have the ability to hold onto its territory for the time being, the military faces a stiff challenge from around 12,000 North Korean troops allied with Russian forces in Kursk. There is.
Ukrainian army reserve colonel Serhii Grabsky said the new attack on Kursk was more about military strategy than negotiations and was focused on distracting Russia.
“The main purpose of this, simply put, is to keep the Russian military busy,” he said.
Grabski said this was also a message to Trump.
“This action … shows the Western allies that Ukraine has not lost its combat capabilities and that Ukraine can and will resist with or without U.S. support.”
Since Russia began regaining territory in the fall, Ukraine has lost about 40 percent of the territory it once held in Kursk. But a senior defense official said that despite the pressure, Ukraine “continues to resist Russia's extraordinary series of attacks” on Kursk and on Ukraine's eastern front.
official told reporters this week This means Kiev has no choice but to increase pressure on Russia and negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Our calculation is that President Putin is not the type of person to give up on something that doesn't need to be given up,” the official said. “And President Putin will tend to be more rational because he will be most impressed when he goes into negotiations and when he goes into wars where he has not yet achieved his objectives and the costs are piling up. .”
The new Ukrainian offensive, aimed at the towns of Berdin and Bolshoye Soldatskoye in northern Suzha, ended in a limited effort, securing about three Russian villages and about nine square miles.
Russian military bloggers claimed Thursday that Ukraine has been removed from Berdin and that Russian forces are advancing northwest and southeast of Suzha. According to the latest Report of the Institute for the Study of War.
Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army major general who has researched and written extensively about Ukraine, said the country was likely taking advantage of the opportunity to inflict casualties on Russia. President Zelenskiy said this week that Russia had suffered 38,000 casualties at Kursk.
“They had recently inflicted significant casualties on Russia and North Korea, but they were looking for an opportunity to further expand their positions or level the front.”
Ryan said Ukraine would benefit by holding on to as much territory as possible if negotiations begin.
“Russia accounts for 18 percent of Ukraine, but Kursk is much smaller than 1 percent of Russia,” he said. “There's a pretty big difference in the terrain that's being held. That being said, it's always better to hold some of the enemy's territory when you go into negotiations.”
The clock is ticking for Ukraine as President Trump approaches his inauguration on January 20th. The president-elect campaigned on a promise to end the war within his first day in office, but has scaled back that ambition in recent weeks.
Both countries face serious challenges, with Russia suffering heavy losses and facing an economic recessionOn the other hand, Ukraine is struggling to secure human resources and maintain its position.
Rafael Ross, a policy researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said it was unclear whether Ukraine would be able to hold on to Kursk territory much longer, saying it was becoming “increasingly difficult” to protect the area. .
“In the coming months, if Ukrainians can prove that they will not be divided in Kursk and the overall situation of the Russian military inside Ukraine and across the front continues to deteriorate at an unsustainable rate, it may happen. “No,” he said, “and it's perfectly fine to participate in negotiations.”
“But at this point, I think the Kremlin is probably looking at a trend line that looks bad for Russia but is even worse for Ukraine,” Ross added.
President Biden is seeking to strengthen Ukraine's hand in the expected negotiations. The United States has sent a total of $122 billion in aid to Ukraine, of which approximately $66 billion is military aid.
“If you are going to oversee such negotiations, [we want] to confirm [Ukraine is] “If we do this from a position of strength, President Trump will be able to get the strongest possible deal,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. at a press conference on Wednesday In Paris.
The final security aid of the Biden administration was announced Thursday, leaving the Trump administration with billions of dollars approved by Congress.
President Trump has provided few details about how to resolve the war, but Ukraine special envoy Keith Kellogg has vowed to resume aid to bring Kiev to the table if Moscow becomes an obstacle to negotiations. and threatened to use a large amount of weapons.
The talks reportedly center on Russia claiming four territories it occupies in eastern Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine's security.
But Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said Ukraine is “likely to lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months” and that President Putin is not ready for serious negotiations to keep Ukraine intact. said he was not interested.
“While important territory will be sacrificed, Ukraine will not lose well at the negotiating table because an independent Ukraine will survive, be sovereign and protected by Western security.” he wrote for the atlantic magazine. “Instead, it will face complete defeat, loss of sovereignty, and complete Russian domination.”
Kagan said President Trump should consider the choice between “accepting a humiliating strategic defeat on the world stage and immediately doubling down on U.S. support for Ukraine while there is still time.”
Since the invasion of Kursk, Ukraine has faced questions about whether the operation was withdrawing vital weapons and personnel from the front lines in the east, particularly in the Donetsk region, where Russian forces continue to advance.
But Zelenskiy and other Ukrainian officials say the Kursk attack could divert Russian forces from the front lines, seize military assets, create an opportunity for a prisoner exchange and secure ground that could be used for negotiations. argues that it was extremely important.
Brock Biermann, visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said the limited nature of the Kursk operation shows that Ukraine is aware of Russia's capabilities and could lead to a larger offensive. He said there is.
Biermann also said that Ukraine would benefit from any operations that strengthen its position “as the Trump administration approaches its time in power.”
“Both Russia and Ukraine are willing to do whatever they can in advance, because the benefits will be even greater if the Trump administration takes office,” he said. “President Trump is effectively going to end this war one way or another, so we see both sides trying to take advantage of whatever they can.”
