Welcome to NFL Wild Card Weekend. Football fans and bettors are rewarded for having to endure 18 weeks of mediocre, bad, awful teams.
There will be wall-to-wall playoff games from Saturday at 4:30 p.m. to Monday night at approximately 11:30 p.m.
And with the exception of Saquon Barkley of the Eagles, Sam Darnold of the Vikings and Todd Bowles of the Bucks, you won't see any Giants or Jets in sight.
Let's dig into it right away.
Saturday
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. Houston Texans 42.5 and Under: There's playoff experience, and then there's Justin Herbert's playoff experience. The Chargers quarterback played in one postseason game and got off to a great start in 2022 with a 27-0 lead against the Jaguars. But that was back in the day when the Bolts were wreaking havoc on games in all sorts of ways, and eventually they were done. We lost 31-30.
CJ Stroud's playoff debut last season was even better. He threw three touchdown passes in the first half and then had two picks by Joe Flacco in a 45-14 blowout win between the Texans (9-7 at the time) and the Browns (11-5). I watched him throw sixes.
This should be an even game, but the difference is first-year Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh. He led the 49ers to the Super Bowl, won a national championship at Michigan State, and now managed to get the Chargers to stop shooting themselves in the foot. Their nine giveaways (three interceptions and six lost fumbles) were the second fewest in the NFL this season.
Stroud will be without its No. 2 receiving threat, Tank Dell, and the offense has struggled all season.
Both running backs for the Chargers are questionable with injuries, with J.K. Dobbins listed as questionable and Gus Edwards missing the last two games.
But Herbert and Harbaugh have figured it out all season, going 7-2 against the spread (ATS) on the road, part of a 12-5 ATS mark.
Charger, 23-17
Pittsburgh Steelers (+10) vs. Baltimore Ravens; Under 43.5: Harbaugh's next choice is John, and if he wants to back him, he'll need to score in double digits against the Ravens' mortal rivals, the Steelers.
Those suffering from recency bias may focus on Baltimore's 34-17 win over Pittsburgh on December 21st. However, considering the previous 10 meetings, the maximum difference between the two teams was 7 points, and the average difference was 3.7 points.
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Zay Flowers of the Ravens had 100 yards receiving in the Dec. 21 matchup, but was forced to miss the game due to a knee injury sustained last week.
Coaches Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin know each other well, but the players hate each other intensely. Russell Wilson should play well enough to keep this close throughout.
In the 10 meetings between the Ravens and Steelers over the last 10 years, the average total score was 35.1 points, so I'm going to take the under.
Ravens, 24 wins, 16 losses
This week's lock: Steelers (2024 Lock 9-9).
last week: 9-7 overall, 1-2 best bet.
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Dave Brezow is one of the longest-tenured NFL handicappers in the post, having been drafted 31 years ago. He won the Post's NFL betting rankings in 2021 and most recently won the playoffs in 2023.
