Russians have big ambitions for their space program. they are planning a new space station It is planned to replace the International Space Station when it reaches the end of its operational life around 2030. China has formed an alliance with China to participate in the moon base project. It has a nuclear reactor to power it.
The question then arises: Is Russia in a position to achieve these and other ambitious goals? Recent research by the Foreign Policy Research Institute raises some questions.
“Several factors make sustainable development of Russia's space program impossible,” the report said. Problems include “sanctions, embargoes on advanced industrial equipment, labor shortages, limited financial resources spread over too many projects, cessation of space cooperation with Western partners except for operations on the International Space Station, and disruption of the Russian space industry.” 'economic inefficiency'.
The article suggests that the current declining fortunes of the Russian space program can be traced back to 2014, when Putin captured Crimea from Ukraine, and to 2022, when Russia invaded its neighboring country with the aim of conquest.
The truth is, Russia's space program has remained the same since the collapse of the Soviet Union. This decline can be traced back to the death in 1966 of the famous “chief designer” Sergei Korolev. Mr. Korolev is the father of the Soviet space program and, ironically given recent events, is Ukrainian. Korolev died in a failed mission, and the Soviet Union lost the race to the moon three years later.
Ars Technica mentionsIt's another sign of the stagnation of Russia's space program. Recently, the Russians launched their 2,000th rocket from the R-7 rocket family. The R-7 was designed by Korolev and was Russia's first intercontinental ballistic missile. It was used to launch the first Sputnik in 1957. Its improved version launched Yuri Gagarin into space. Since then, Russia has continued to rely on variants of the R-7.
As Russia's rocket development stalls, the United States is increasingly relying on cost-competitive launch vehicles made by SpaceX and Rocket Lab. Blue Origin's New Glenn is in the midst of testing, and SpaceX's Starship is in development.
Still, Russia may have regained some of its lost cosmic glory. Our partnership with NASA on the space station has been mutually beneficial. The United States had a foreign policy case for the space station and eventually persuaded enough members of Congress to approve funding. Russia was able to keep cosmonauts in space even after the Mir space station's operational life ended.
Russia may have offered to join the Artemis mission, which will return to the moon and even go to Mars. But Russian President Vladimir Putin had other priorities, and that was not the right choice.
The money Russia is spending on its futile attempt to conquer Ukraine could be spent on strengthening its space program. Moreover, Russian skilled engineers and scientists are leaving Russia for fear of being sent to the meat grinder in Ukraine. Western sanctions, which are sure to intensify with Donald Trump's re-election, are also not helping.
Russia's situation presents an opportunity if President Trump accepts it. President Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine. He could help seal the deal by making Putin an offer he can't refuse.
If President Putin is able to reach a deal with Ukraine and end the war of conquest, President Trump could offer Russia a role in the Artemis program in return. The next U.S. president may point out that Russia has prospered as a result of its partnership with the International Space Station. Without that partnership, Russia would never have become any space power.
If President Putin agrees to peace in Ukraine, Russia could see cosmonauts land on the moon in the near future. This is what the Soviet Union tried and failed to accomplish in its race to the moon in the 1960s. Russia would enjoy access to US technology and US commercial providers such as SpaceX.
Russia would also be obligated to sign the Artemis Accords, joining a growing community of nations committed to peaceful exploration of space and economic development. A happy side effect would be that the nascent space alliance between Russia and China would be scrapped, leaving Russia isolated.
Russia will be faced with a choice. On the other hand, war and destruction. On the other hand, peace and prosperity. Let's hope he makes a wise choice this time.
Mark R. Whittington writes,Why is it so difficult to return to the moon?” Similarly “To the moon, Mars and beyond”, and more recently”Why will America return to the moon?” He blogs at:Karma John's Corner.
