Analytics firm Glassnode is warning that Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a critical juncture that previously signaled the end of the bull market.
Glassnode said on social media platform Ta. .
According to Glassnode, historical data show This means that Bitcoin tends to enter bearish territory when its price falls below the value of the indicator.
“Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) cost-based model is crucial in gauging new investor sentiment. Historically, this model tracks market lows during bull cycles and We have differentiated between bear markets.
BTC price is currently around 7% above the STH cost base of $88,135. If the price stabilizes below this level, sentiment may be weakening among new investors, which often marks a turning point in market trends. ”
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $94,425.
Focusing on long-term holders, investors who have held BTC for more than 155 days, Glassnode say This group is draining Bitcoin at a dramatically faster rate. The extreme distribution of long-term holders does not necessarily signal that the Bitcoin bull market is over, according to the analytics firm.
“At prices approximately 12% below all-time highs, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) remain in circulation, but at a slower pace. However, the 30-day percentage change in LTH supply indicates that the speed of distribution is It suggests that we have probably peaked and reached extreme levels seen in previous cycles…
In past cycles, prices continued to rise even after LTH distribution peaked. This suggests that the peak of the distribution does not necessarily coincide with the most recent macrotop. ”
Glassnode concludes its analysis by noting that almost all long-term holders are in the green.
“Another factor to consider: Bitcoin LTH’s supply loss remains at 0%. Almost all long-term holders are still making profits. Historically, LTH has experienced sustained losses and As the severity increased, it often signaled the true end of the cycle. So far, that has not been the case.”
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