Los Angeles faces several more days of hell before the wildfires still raging are brought under control, experts have warned.
A week after the Palisades Fire started, the fire is only 17% contained and remains burning about 24,000 acres (about half the size of Brooklyn, New York).
More than 40,000 acres in Southern California have been set on fire in recent weeks.
The biggest challenge remains the hot, dry winds, which picked up earlier this week, although not as much as forecasters had feared.
“We are already seeing some improvement. [in the weather]. This is a large part of why we are seeing such success in containing fires. You want to make sure the winds aren’t working against you,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Heather Zehr told the Post.
“Last week the winds were so strong that they overtook the firefighters,” she said.
Fortunately, the winds that were blowing have just died down on their own, and Zea is hopeful that firefighters will have great success in suppressing and extinguishing the fire this weekend.
“We should be able to get it under control pretty quickly once the winds calm down,” Zehr said.
Wind direction is also important. So far, the Santa Ana winds are bringing in dry desert air, but a change in direction could bring in moist air from the ocean.
In addition to the wind, the delay in the rainy season also contributed to the outbreak of the fire. This winter was the second driest on record in Los Angeles, with just 0.16 inches of precipitation.
Stay up to date with NYP's coverage of horrific fires in the Los Angeles area
But Angelenos can't expect the rain to return anytime soon.
“Normally it rains at this time of year, but it started very late. There will be very little chance between now and the end of January,” Zehr said.
Jacob Weigler, wildlife coordinator for central Pierce County in Washington state, said it's difficult to predict when fires will be contained in large urban sprawls like Los Angeles, but he expects them to be contained “quickly.” He said he was there.
“Sooner or later. They have overwhelming force there. There are over 5,000 people fighting the Palisades fire,” he told the Post.
He also said authorities may be reluctant to declare a fire “contained” even after it has stopped spreading.
One way to tell if a fire is functionally contained, even if it is not officially contained, is to look at the acreage report.
“If you don't increase your acreage, you're not getting any bigger,” Weigler said.
The official acreage tally for the Eaton, Palisades and Hearst fires has not changed since Sunday, according to CalFire's report, but Weigler argued that means they remain the same size.
However, while the fire should be extinguished quickly, it may take longer to be completely extinguished.
“The overall size of that fire is not that large. There are bigger fires happening all the time. But the impact and location are extreme. We had military personnel there for a month to make sure it was completely extinguished.” “You'll see the power coming in,” he said.
LA wildfire timeline
January 1st:
- midnight: Firefighters respond to the Rockman Fire northeast of Pacific Palisades.
- 4:46am.: The Los Angeles Fire Department extinguished the fire after burning eight acres.
January 7th:
- 10:15am.: Pacific Palisades homeowner resident Michelle Valentine saw smoke near the scene of the Rockman fire. His wife called 911 to report the fire, according to the Washington Post.
- 10:33am.: Firefighters reported seeing smoke and said they needed to divert resources from two other fires, according to radio communications.
- 10:45am.: According to the Washington Post, Valentine called 911 again but got a busy signal.
- 10:48am.: Firefighters are radioing a warning that the fire is moving in the wind and could spread to 10 acres.
- 11am.: The first firefighters arrive at the scene of the fire.
- 11:28am.: Fire has grown to 200 acres, according to radio communications.
- 11:30～11:45: Valentine saw the first fire truck arrive in his neighborhood.
- 12:20pm.: First evacuation order takes effect in Pacific Palisades
- 1:40pm.: LA Fire Department reports the fire is currently approximately 300 acres and growing.
- 7:30pm: Fire grows to nearly 3,000 acres
- Until 9pm: Fire reaches heart of Pacific Palisades
Even after a wildfire has stopped visibly burning, fuel can still smolder underground. Firefighters can spend weeks poking the ground with heat sensors, in addition to inspecting damaged buildings and searching for bodies.
But for now, thousands of firefighters are focused on keeping the still-raging inferno from spreading, which can be much more difficult in cities than in forests.
Firefighters can't destroy buildings or parts of infrastructure for fuel, as they can by destroying trees and undergrowth in a forest fire.
Instead, they use existing barriers such as roads, rivers, and drainage ditches (firefighters call these “anchor points”) to form boundaries and try to strengthen them as much as possible.
As for houses and storefronts burning within their boundaries, they are separate.
“We don't have enough people or fire engines to do what the average person would think to do, which is grab a hose and pour water on it,” Weigler said.
“The long game is to let it consume its own fuel. Lock it up and let it burn out.”
“If 10 houses burn in a community of 100 people, instead of putting out those 10 houses, you try to save the other 90.”
