It took more than 15 months for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza to be reached and potentially sustainable. But it didn't take long for a political battle to erupt in Washington over who deserved the credit.
“The EPIC ceasefire agreement could only have been achieved as a result of the historic victory in November,” President-elect Trump claimed on social media shortly after noon Wednesday. “We've accomplished a lot without being in the White House.”
President Biden first said in a written statement and then in brief remarks at the White House that the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas builds on the framework he proposed last May.
The most memorable moment of Biden's appearance came at the end. A reporter asked whether the “history books” were praising the current president or Trump for this agreement.
“Are you kidding me?” Biden quickly shot back.
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, pressed on the topic during her final press conference in the late afternoon, told reporters: …All I can say is that the president got it done. ”
The ups and downs are inevitable, given the surprising timing of the agreement that finally gave hope for an end to a period of devastating bloodshed.
The first phase of the ceasefire could take effect almost immediately, with the first hostage releases likely scheduled for Sunday, the day before Mr. Biden is sworn in as president and Mr. Trump takes office for the second time.
The historical echoes of previous Middle East crises are unmistakable.
A generation ago, another one-term Democratic president, Jimmy Carter, tried unsuccessfully to free American hostages in Tehran in his final year in office. President Carter was defeated by former President Ronald Reagan in November 1980. Iran released the hostages on January 20, 1981, the day President Reagan was inaugurated.
The current situation is less clear-cut than the Iranian move in 1981, which was a clear boost for Reagan and a final humiliation for Carter.
Biden is correct that the agreement announced Wednesday was relatively close to the framework he laid out in May. But that begs the question: why now?
It would be a stretch to think that it is a pure coincidence that the deal, which had been on the fence for eight months, was struck just as Mr. Biden was about to hand over the reins of power to Mr. Trump.
Some insiders have argued that Trump's threat of “hellish punishment” if the hostages are not released may have helped push Hamas negotiators over the line. There is.
But Israeli media also reported that President Trump's new Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, increased pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to a deal during a face-to-face meeting last weekend.
Chaim Levinson, a columnist for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, outlined the pressure after that meeting in an article headlined, “President Trump's Middle East envoy forces Netanyahu to accept Gaza plan he has repeatedly rejected.” .
Back in Washington, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) paid tribute to Witkoff during President Trump's confirmation hearing for secretary of state before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Mr. Rubio told senators that Mr. Witkoff was a “critical element” in reaching the deal, adding: “He was involved in the deal from day one.”
To summarize, the agreement has three stages, starting with the release of some 33 particularly vulnerable hostages by Hamas, a moratorium on hostilities, and an infusion of humanitarian aid into devastated Gaza.
As long as the first phase lasts at least 16 days out of a total of six weeks, a second phase of negotiations will begin, including the release of all hostages, a declaration of “sustainable calm” and an Israeli withdrawal.
The final stage will include the start of a substantial reconstruction of Gaza and the macabre undertaking of exchanging bodies held by hostile forces.
Of course, there are still many things that can go wrong.
Prime Minister Netanyahu may face difficulties, especially with the most hardline members of his coalition government, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog, whose term is largely ceremonial, encouraged support for the deal on Wednesday.
There is also the possibility that one side may backtrack on its commitments, or that negotiations over exactly how to move from Phase 1 to Phase 2 may break down.
Mr. Biden appeared at the White House and expressed some appreciation for the efforts of Mr. Trump's team. “Although the agreement was developed and negotiated under my administration, most of its terms will be implemented by the next administration,” he said.
Biden added that in recent days, “we have been talking as one team.”
Biden plans to look at his legacy in broader terms in his speech Wednesday night. But he will clearly hope that a cease-fire deal will help heal the wounds he has created with young, progressive voters over Gaza.
Biden's self-described “ironclad” approach to Israel included about $18 billion in military aid during the first 12 months of the conflict, according to a Brown University study. Earlier this month, the administration notified Congress of a proposed additional $8 billion arms deal with Israel.
Israeli military operations following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack have killed more than 46,000 Palestinians and displaced about 90 percent of Gaza's population, according to the local health ministry. Approximately 1,200 Israelis were killed on October 7th.
The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Job Gallant on war crimes charges.
Biden's Israel policy is also widely seen as weighing on Vice President Harris' campaign, particularly in Michigan, a key battleground state with the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the nation.
Harris lost Michigan to Trump and also lost Dearborn, a former Democratic stronghold and America's first Arab-majority city.
A ceasefire in Gaza would be a relief for both sides.
But it may take a long time for history to decide who deserves political credit.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.
