Cryptocurrency prediction markets indicate that TikTok is likely to face a ban in the US by May 2025.
According to the latest information, the main platforms Polymarket and Karushi Both indicate that the ByteDance-owned app is likely to be shut down.
According to Polymarket data, the probability of a TikTok ban is 79% and the transaction volume has reached $5.6 million. Similarly, Mr. Kalsi predicts with an 89% probability that the stake will be $2.23 million. Both platforms have seen a sharp increase in these probabilities since early January 2025.
Prediction markets work similar to stock exchanges, allowing users to buy contracts based on real-world outcomes. In this case, traders would receive a payment if TikTok is “banned from downloading and/or use by a majority of Americans” by April 30th.
The high trading volume suggests strong market confidence in the possibility of a ban.
The current situation is due to a law that will come into force on Sunday. However, President Biden said that he would not enforce it on his last day in office. This means the incoming Trump administration will have the authority to extend the ban for 90 days after taking office on Monday.
The potential ban drew the attention of several people, including prominent YouTuber MrBeast, who expressed interest in acquiring TikTok to thwart the ban.
In a recent tweet, he claimed to have been contacted by multiple billionaires regarding a potential acquisition. However, the practicality of such a move remains unclear.
“Shark Tank” host Kevin O'Leary and former Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt have also expressed interest in acquiring the platform's U.S. operations.
Prediction market's high confidence in the ban signals growing concern about TikTok's future in the US, with President Trump also recently spoke He met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and discussed a variety of topics, including TikTok.
President Trump also posted on Truth Social that a Supreme Court ruling is expected to uphold the ban on the sale of TikTok.
“My decision regarding TikTok will be made in the not-too-distant future, but I need time to review the situation,” Trump said.
