The US economy was closed in 2024, steadily growing, and was promoted by a resilient consumer spending more than offsetting business investment and world trade issues. Despite high interest rates and continuous inflation pressure, the national economic momentum remains the same, has set a stage of uncertain but potentially strong 2025.
The Ministry of Commerce reported on Thursday that the gross domestic product (GDP), which has been adjusted to inflation, has risen at a rate of 2.3 % a year in the fourth quarter and has decreased from 3.1 % in the last three months. During the year, the economy expanded slightly below 2.9 % in 2023, but exceeded the forecast of many economists at the beginning of the year.
The main factor in expanding in the fourth quarter was consumer spending, which was the strongest and 4.2 % per year since early 2023. It has been strengthened. In particular, the rapid increase in spending in November and December may have been affected by consumer trust after Donald Trump's election victory in November, eliminating emotions on the current economic situation. did.
The labor market remained the cause of stability. The unemployment rate ended at 4.1 %, but the tax after inflation was 2.8 % a year in the fourth quarter, providing additional sports force to households.
After a quarter consecutive shrinkage, the housing market showed signs of revival, and housing investment rose at a rate of 5.3 %. The rise was due to a decline in mortgage rates at the end of the year, promoting the construction and renovation of new houses. However, many housing owners remained on bystanders to increase their long -term borrowing costs, so existing housing sales remained weak.
In terms of business, investment has been delayed. Non -resident fixed investment decreased by 2.2 %, and the initial decline in more than three years has decreased due to eight -week strikes in boeing that confused aircraft production. Business expenditures for equipment decreased by 7.8 %, but corporate investment in structures decreased for the second quarter. Some economists pointed out the rise in trade policies and interest rates as factors that contribute to more cautious investment prospects.
Despite the solid economic expansion, inflation was still an issue. The federal preparation system priority inflation scale (personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index) increased from 1.5 % in the previous quarter, 2.3 % in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy, core PCE inflation is 2.5 %, slightly increased from the third quarter.
The Fed chose to stabilize interest rates at the January meeting, indicating that inflation has been alleviated from a high price in 2022, but the policy creators are alert to the reduction. 。
The US economy is higher than the world's colleagues, but the trade policy and the uncertainty about government expenditures may form a growing growth in the coming months. The Trump administration has potentially expanding tariffs on imports this weekend, with the aim of supporting domestic production and reducing trade imbalance. Such policies may encourage investment in the US industry, but companies have endured potential supply chains and increase costs.
At the same time, the administration has raised the government's expenditures and the immigration policy change. Both may affect the labor market and economic growth. Some analysts believe that companies have purchased inventory in late 2024, ahead of potential tariff raising, and temporarily increased GDP.
Despite the approaching policy changes, the economy is in the New Year with great momentum. Consumer trust, stabilization housing market, and resilience labor markets provide strong platforms for continuous expansion. However, the headwinds were able to test their strength in the next few months, including inflation risks, adjusting trade policy, and global economic weakness.
For now, consumers continue to be economic growth engines. At least in the final stretch of 2024, it was a stronger engine that ran stronger than most people predicted.
Since the election, business optimism has been increasing rapidly due to the expectations of tariffs designed to promote tax reduction, deregulation, and domestic production. Many business leaders predict their regulatory burden and have more advantageous policy environments to encourage the US manufacturing industry. The outlook for a decline in corporate tax has further strengthened emotions, and some companies are accelerating employment and capital spending in anticipation of profitability. This new optimism has contributed to the rally of stock market and expectations for more powerful business activities in 2025.
