tThe street of Rasio, which was once a lively city in the northeastern part of Myanmar, is quieter than usual. Schools are closed, except for the people operated by volunteers from the democracy of the community. Destruction remains due to a few months of bombing. The battle has stopped, but the electricity has not yet moved. Instead, residents rely on solar power to charge mobile phones and cook Fire and charcoal.
“We saw many civilians who died during the battle [in those days]。 We saw them on the street, in the lane, some bodies were corrupt, and some of them were newly dead. Leo*, a 40 -year -old driver, said Leo*, a 40 -year -old driver running hiding in the darkness of a homemade bunker every time a jet fighter arrives.
When Leo and his family were able to go out again, the country's widely hated military government has left. The city was at the center of the army's most humiliating defeat when it fell to the Myanmar Democratic Alliance (MNDAA) in August. Despite the few months of bombing, the army failed to capture the city. Along with other series of losses nationwide, it has enhanced a bigger movement to overthrow the army.
It marked one of the first losses of 14 regional military headquarters and strategically important cities on the border with China. In the aftermath, there was such anger among military personnel, and the demands for the resignation of the military secretary increased.
“People resist”
The army, which took power in the coup in 2021, caused armed resistance and now loses the rule of the national band. And as the conflict has been in the fifth year, the adjacent China has given a great deal of support to the apparent attempt to stop the ultimate collapse, but it has been in danger of further losses.
The military is facing the opposition from the group's patchwork: Defense Forces for those formed after the coup to fight for the return of democracy, and ethnic tribes that have long fought for independence. Armed organization of. The size of these groups, those specific goals, and the degree of adjustment are various.
The 95 towns and 95 towns are now falling into various opposition groups. Myanmar Peace Monitor。 Last year, in the northern part of Kachin, more than 200 military bases and 14 towns, including the rare earth mining hubs in Chipui and Panwa, were lost. In the western part, almost all of Lakine, including the Western Regional Command, collapsed. In the central sagar area, it was an important town needed for people's defense forces to catch cowlin and pingleb and transport supplies to the forefront.
Estimated including Research entrusted by BBCIt suggests that the army dominates only 21 % of the territory of the country, but it still holds an important, densely populated city.
Jason Tower, a country director of the US Peace Institute of Peace, said that the following year, the following year, the following year, the following year, the Myanmar army was trying to maintain its power using airstrikes and other kinds of abuse. He said that it was more likely to be seen, and the enemy was more effective.
The army has promised an election this year. The ally is supported by China. However, it is unknown how to implement them, considering how much the rival group controls. “The administration needs to use important violence to secure the area where voting is done. We know that many people will resist violently.”
China's changing response
When Rasio fell last year, the opposition group could move down toward the center of the country and threaten Mandalay, a potential step toward the capital, Nepidau.
It was this that promoted China's reaction to Myanmar. China, which has a deep connection between the northern armed group and the military allies, had previously approved MNDAA's attack after the military government was tired of being unstoppable at the border. 。 Analysts say that MNDAA seemed to be much further further than China expected. Beijing responded by closing the border intersection and stopping the flow of resources to ethnic armed groups in northern Shan.
“meanwhile [China] I didn't know what would come next because I had no affection for the military administration, so I was even more cautious about the disorderly collapse of NayPyidaw's power. Greater confusion or the possibility of the western government may threaten the huge amount of China's investment in the country.
However, even under such pressure, Rasio is under MNDAA management. China has requested the group to return the territory to the army, and this month it announced a ceasefire on both sides. The details of the contract are unknown.
In Rasio, people are back to the city. The military is removed at night, and the residents have not lived at night, fearing a soldier who demands a visitor who is staying in his property overnight. However, there are other concerns, such as the fear of MNDAA forced recruitment. There are concerns about the dude process because MNDAA is argued under martial law. Following the public trial, this was also executed in Laukkai, another city controlled in northern Shan.
Struggle to survive
It is sensitive to express criticism of MNDAA. “I don't like the rules of MNDAA so much,” said KHIN Lay*, 24. “But don't say I don't like it.”
She says she wants only peace, she says. Last year's battle began on July 2, the day she gave birth. “I remember the date accurately,” she says. “I gave birth around 10.30 in the morning, and I heard the 9.30 night battle. The hospital building echoed by the sound of bombardment.”
She ran away with a 7 -day baby and a 20 -month -old girl and packed with the other 14 in Alphard Ban in Toyota. The transportation was very intense because the residents ran away, and it took 30 hours that it would have been a two and a half hours trip. By the evening, they used drinking water.
“My baby was very lucky and he didn't die on the way,” she said. A three -month -old baby died while her mother was carrying him on a motorcycle.
She returned to Rasio in January. Because her baby's vaccine was exhausted at a muse hospital in a nearby town.
She is concentrated on trying to earn enough money so that she can afford to protect them from the worst conflict, but the local economy is seriously influenced. “If I could make a lot of income and my business was going well, I would get a passport, go abroad, and settle there,” she said. “I will come back when our country gains independence and becomes peaceful. This is my imagination and I do not know if it is possible.”
The border with China is now partially resumed, but for months, the fuel has been completely cut off, from home supplies and drugs to construction materials, and incurs the main cities, Yangon, and Mandalay. I did. 。 The gasoline liters are 7,500 kears ($ 3.60), and the rice bags are 290,000 kears ($ 138).
People lend money and sell valuables to survive. “My NE sells dry food, and I buy it with a credit. I borrowed some money from my sister. I sold my husband's ring a few days ago.” The old Daw THEIN*says. Her husband worked as a caddy in a golf club in the city until he was forced to escape from a battle in Rasio last July.
In the whole country, the poverty rates have increased the poverty, and half of the population lives under the poverty line, and one -third is one -third. The United Nations warns the imminent risk of West Lacine's hunger Amine, as fierce conflicts and trade blockade have a complete economic collapse. The health and educational systems have been exposed to severe tension, and the introduction of forced conscription by the army caused young people from the city. Research by the United Nations Development Program indicates that the country is falling into the dark, and less than half of the population can use electricity.
In Rasio, a pause due to a military bombing, and with the influence of MNDAA, we were able to recover at least partially electricity and other services. In other areas of the country, especially in the towns in central Myanmar, the setting of a new administration has been delayed because it is currently operated by a new group or the bombing may be longer.
Independent outlet Myanmar is currently reporting MNDAA agreed to return Rasio to the army by June. However, MNDAA has denied this, and it seems that it is a distant outlook because the army is pressing the forefront of the whole country.
The army is currently facing more losses in Lacaine and Kachin. It has been proven that China's support is useful, but analysts say that Beijing will expect concessions in return because it has not saved the army.
After a few months under the bombing, Leo said that the military enemy should continue. “i don't want [the struggle] To stop for powerful foreign pressure, “he said. After overthrowing the Myanmar army, all groups said, “We unite with people and cooperate to bring our country development.”
*The name has been changed to the whole to protect the identity
