For nearly 80 years, humanity has benefited from the international order built and maintained by American power.
This “Pax Americana” – characterized by relatively stable international relations, widespread global trade, unprecedented prosperity and a lack of conflict among the masses – is approaching abruptly. The following shocks everyone who has become accustomed to its benefits.
The orders after World War II were not perfect, but they had amazing results. American leadership has produced the longest period without a major war between the great powers of modern history. Global poverty has declined dramatically, with the number of people living in extreme poverty falling from More than half of the world's population In the 1950s Less than 10% today.
Democratic governance has expanded To an unprecedented level. International organizations, from the United Nations to the World Trade Organization, have created forums for the peaceful resolution of conflicts. This is all a commitment to the international system based on rules, which arises under the umbrella of American military superiority.
That era ends through deliberate abdication by the United States, not a decisive event.
Recent demands by President Trump – seeking to buy Greenland from Denmark against its will, threatening punitive tariffs on allies and neighbors, and forcing Ukraine to surrender mineral wealth in exchange for ongoing US support – show fundamental changes. America supports abandoning its role as a system administrator and becoming just another selfish, great force. The results will be broad and serious.
Security guarantees to prevent armed conflicts will weaken. For decades, potential invaders have been blocked by the knowledge that attacking American allies would cause US intervention. Once that reliability is eroded, the power of opportunism tests boundaries. Taiwan is at risk of Chinese invasion, and the Baltic countries and other countries adjacent to Russia are more vulnerable.
Smaller states become increasingly pawned at great competitions. During Pax Americana, small countries were able to navigate international relations with reasonable autonomy protected by US-backed international norms. In emerging multipolar systems, these countries face enforcement from regional authority to establish territories of influence.
We have already witnessed this dynamic with Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's increasingly aggressive stance in the South China Sea. Like sharks smelling blood in the water, hostile forces prepare for a return to the world, as Thucydides famously wrote, “do what they can and the weak suffer what they have to do.” Major wars between states have become much more common than they have in the past decades or more.
Relatedly, the power imbalance between the nuclear and the non-nuclear state becomes more pronounced and dangerous. During the Pax Americana, the US nuclear umbrella protected its allies and reduced incentives for nuclear proliferation. When this protection becomes unreliable, countries face tough choices. Develop nuclear weapons or embrace vulnerability. As a result, it is likely to become a cascade of nuclear proliferation, increasing the risk of miscalculation, accidents and local arms races.
Economic prosperity will suffer as a fragment of the integrated world economy. The American-led order created ideal conditions for globalization: safe transport lanes, predictable rules, relatively free trade. Without the great power to enforce these norms, protectionism will rise, supply chains will localize and economic efficiency will be reduced. The poorest countries that have benefited greatly from integration into global markets will suffer the most as a setback in investment in safer shelters. Well-heeled countries will have lower standard of living as access to markets with cheaper labor is blocked.
The tragedy is that many Americans who are frustrated by the costs of global leadership do not recognize the many indirect benefits they have received from it. It is true that American hegemony was not free to maintain, but by carrying those costs we were able to significantly maintain the world. There is little threat of direct security, reliable access to resources, and direct security, as well as a stable market age for exports.
The upcoming obstacles will hurt Americans more than they realize through the rise in military threats and economic disruption. Those celebrating America's retreat from global leadership will soon know that their wishes have been given to the feet of the monkeys. The world following Pax Americana is poorer, more dangerous, less free. This is a tough lesson about how better American-led order is than the alternatives that history offers.
Nicholas Creel is an associate professor of business law at the University of Georgia and State University. His views expressed here are not necessarily those of employers or other institutions.
