As boxing cliches say, style fights. However, you can also apply it to all sports. And next week we're about to hear the sport's cliches in the breakdown of the NCAA tournament. A particular matchup often determines how far a team can move forward.
The same philosophy applies to the betting of propositions. Players can thrive or struggle based on a particular opponent. This spans the team's overall defensive strategy and individual matchups of players.
And I think there will be a classic case with the Oklahoma City Thunder, who will visit the Detroit Pistons on Saturday. I initially considered playing under totals based on certain advanced statistics, but I think better play is the props that Jalen Duren is involved.
The Detroit Big Man has cached under 2.5 assists in nine of his last 10 games. I don't know why it stops.
The Pistons rank second in points per game via fast breaks. We consider this to be a major priority as we want to generate scoring before the league's top rank defense is set. That game script doesn't help Duren accumulate assists.
On the half court, the Thunder has a reliable defensive center for Isaiah Hartenstein, who doesn't need the support of a double team. In theory, double teams will increase the chances of Duren assist as they pass it to open shooters.
But that doesn't apply – and one of the reasons why the Thunder ranks first for opponents' 3-point shooting rates. They spin well, but also play great personal defenses.
When the Thunder faces a centre that rarely roams outside the paint in an attack, OKC limits his pass. So I ignore recent opponents in starting centers that can thrive around, such as Al Horford, Nikola Jokic, Day'ron Sharpe, and Naz Reid.
Nevertheless, the Static Center did not register many assists: Donovan Klingan (two in four games), Zac Edith (0 in two games), Bismac Biyombo (2), Onikao Konwu (3 in two games), Walker Kessler (2 in three games).
Are you going to bet on the NBA?
So, Duren's limited range, his recent statistical line, and OKC's defensive philosophy combination leads to Duren's smart bets with under 2.5 assists.
Play: Jalen Duren with less than 2.5 assists
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