(Nexstar) – There are tariffs on some imports, and there is a threat of more looming on the horizon. Consumers are worried that everything from food to cars to clothing is about to skyrocket. Thankfully, that may not be the case with gas.
The price of the pump rose this month, leaving daily commuters paying around $3.17 per gallon for spring break road trippers and daily commuters.
In normal years, cheaper prices are expected from here. Over the past decade, gas prices have typically peaked around April 10th, according to Patrick de Haan, head of oil analysis at Gasbuddy.
He explained that as more people hit the roads, demand for gas increases in the summer, but prices usually go up in the spring.
“First of all, the refineries are doing maintenance. During the maintenance, they obviously take part in the unit offline to upgrade, maintain and inspect. The refineries aren’t stirring gasoline in the spring as much as this maintenance is underway,” says De Haan.
At the same time, refineries are switching from winter blended gasoline to summer blends. This is more complicated and expensive.
Also, as travelers hit the roads for spring break, demand for gas begins to rise. “So all three of these push the price up, and the date for that maximum pressure is usually April,” DeHan said.
By May, prices have been trending down historically as refineries closes maintenance and a switch to summer blends.
But everything applies only to normal years. According to De Haan, there are a few unexpected factors that can throw us away from the trend. Natural disasters like hurricanes can affect refinery operations and lead to unpredictable surges in prices.
After that, there will be customs duties. The Trump administration’s announcement that tariffs were wiped out earlier this month caused oil prices to plummet in hopes of slowing the economy and potential recession. Those prices recovered a bit when the president announced a 90-day suspension on most tariffs, but remained fairly low.
“If the tariff situation doesn’t suddenly become a factor, let’s say the administration is navigating agreements with many of these countries. As the tariff situation eases, there’s less concern about the recession, Americans feel better about the economy, and they could travel more,” De Haan said. This will increase the price of the pump slightly from where it is.
At this point, the national average gas price is not shocking. It’s not too shocking, especially when considering where we’ve been in recent years. In 2022, gas prices hit a national average of over $5 per gallon as the global economy emerged from the pandemic and the Russian-Ukurean war disrupts supply.
