By Karen Brown
NAPERVILLE, Illinois (Reuters) – Speculators are hoping last week that they will make a bullish bet on Chicago’s corn and soybeans, and hope that discussions with US trading partners will advance and could stimulate US grain exports.
American farmers have an efficient start with spring planting, and South American crops have good prospects, neither of which particularly supports prices.
However, market uncertainty has risen well enough as no concrete has emerged in terms of US trade negotiations.
Money Manager has been taking net long positions in CBOT corn futures and options since November. In the week that ended April 22nd, they trimmed that position to 112,805 contracts from 124,573 the previous week.
This movement was interesting. Because it included the largest addition of a short position in the total in six months. However, a considerable number of gloss longs also appear in the photograph, suggesting mixed emotions.
Both long and shorts were added to the soybeans, but the Bulls had an edge. Money Manager has increased CBOT Soybean Net to 31,067 futures and options contracts with around 5,000 contracts.
CBOT Soybean futures in July were not changed for the week ended April 22nd. They rose 1.3% in the last three sessions, reaching the highest price for the most active contracts since early February.
US soybeans can be the highest casualty of the US-China trade war, as they are the US’s major exports to China of all kinds. The escalation of the tariff battle between the two countries has been viewed as a potential advantage for the soybean market.
However, Beijing on Friday refused to see talks occur actively and opposed the US claims.
Meanwhile, on Thursday, reports spread that Brazil would export more soybeans to China in 2025 amid the US-China conflict. However, Brazil recently harvested record-breaking soy crops. This means that this is likely to happen regardless of whether it’s a trade war or not.
The corn and soy bulls nodded from Japan last week. This may be considering raising US corn and soybean imports as part of trade negotiations. Japan is the second largest and fifth largest US soybean importer in the United States.
Soy products and wheat
For the week ended April 22nd, Money Manager increased CBOT Soy Oil net to 50,899 futures and options contracts with around 10,000 contracts.
Uncertainty about US biofuel policy has caused investors to sway from bullish to bearish within the last few months, but the demand for soybean oil in a healthy world and robust US exports have been supportive recently.
