When you make a profit, the macro background remains cooperative
Wednesday’s pullback was inevitable after extreme profits. Trump’s soft tone of voice and openness to tariff cuts sparked temporary risk-on feelings. The stocks bounced back and the dollar recovered, gold receding. By Thursday, opportunistic buyers had returned and stabilized gold prices towards the weekend.
Despite its volatility, the core foundation of gold remains solid. The IMF warned that US growth is at risk related to tariffs, but the Fed was stable citing economic uncertainty. Institutional demand remains strong, and low actual fees continue to provide fundamental support.
Key economic data could determine gold’s next move
The next week brings important data. Core PCE inflation is a forecast showing sustained pressure, with first quarter GDP growth expected at a modest 0.4%. If inflation beats estimates or growth is disappointing, gold could regain the opposite momentum.
Non-farm salaries are expected to add 129,000 jobs, which have been down sharply over the past few months. A weaker employment report will boost the fear of a recession and the purchase of safe havens. Traders also monitor ISM manufacturing PMI (projected at 48.0, contraction signaling) and consumer confidence (projected at 87.4). Both are important emotional indicators.
Gold Price Forecast: Consolidation before potential breakouts
Gold could be further integrated as traders digest political and economic signals. However, the structural bullish case remains intact, supported by sustained inflation concerns, Fed uncertainty and ongoing dollar debilitating. Pullback offers strategic opportunities for buyers, and predicts that long-term gold prices will remain clearly bullish.
Details of the economic calendar.
