During Barack Obama’s 2016 visit to London, he issued a stern caution to British voters contemplating Brexit. He warned that if the UK left the European Union, it would find itself “behind the line” regarding trade agreements with the US.
“It’s fair to say that there could be a UK-US trade agreement, but it won’t happen quickly since the focus is on negotiating with the European Union,” Obama remarked. “The UK will be at the back of the queue.”
Fast forward nine years, and it’s evident how mistaken he was.
The UK chose to exit the EU in 2016, but the formal withdrawal from the trade bloc took several years. Now, however, the UK has moved to the forefront in discussions about US trade agreements.
This past Wednesday, President Donald Trump revealed a significant trade agreement with the UK, marking the first major bilateral trade deal of his second term and central to his economic strategy post-globalization. Rather than being sidelined, the UK has stepped up to lead.
This agreement wouldn’t have been feasible had the UK remained tied to the EU’s common commercial policy. Brexit allowed London to negotiate its own terms, and Washington was open to that.
The Trump administration sought to forge a trade deal during the president’s first term, but the UK government was either hesitant or faced opposition from Brexit supporters.
The new agreement aims to lower non-tariff barriers on US agricultural exports, ease obligations for UK automotive and aerospace products, and enhance collaboration on critical technologies and supply chain security. Trump described it as a “model” for future partnerships with other allies.
Obama’s warning has always been more about political implications than economic facts. Trump’s deal highlights a tangible economic reality that underscores the potential benefits of Brexit.
