Romanians are gearing up to participate in the European elections dubbed “Super Sunday,” a crucial moment that could significantly alter the nation’s strategic direction and economic landscape.
The Romanian election is particularly consequential, presenting a contest between outspoken, EU-critical populists and moderate centrists. It’s set to be a nail-biter, the tightest race in Romania’s post-communist history.
In the initial round held on May 4th, George Simion emerged victorious, outperforming Bucharest’s mayor Nikshul Dunn by a considerable margin. Simion, associated with the far-right AUR party, views his group as a “natural ally” of the U.S. MAGA movement.
Polls indicate a narrowing gap between the leading candidates, with some describing the impending vote as a struggle between “Western and Anti-Western Romania.”
“This election isn’t just about choosing the Romanian president; it’s about the country’s entire trajectory,” remarked Siegfried Mureșan, a liberal MEP from Romania. He expressed concerns that Simion’s election could undermine European unity, weaken support for Ukraine, and ultimately benefit Vladimir Putin.
Meanwhile, in Poland, 13 candidates are battling to become the next president, as the first round unfolds.
Recent predictions suggest that the centralist candidate, Rafau Trzaskowski, and Karol Nawrocki, an officially independent candidate backed by the former ruling Law and Justice Party, are poised to advance to the second round on June 1st. A centralist victory might strengthen efforts to push a reform agenda, especially as current President Andrzej Duda, an ally of the ruling party, steps down.
In Portugal, the country is heading to the polls for a third general election within three years, following the central-right prime minister Louis Montenegro losing support in Parliament amid questions regarding his family’s business dealings.
Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance platform is expected to come out on top, yet it’s unlikely to secure a majority, complicating the formation of a government, particularly if the Socialist Party finishes in second.
Montenegro has expressed his unwillingness to ally with the far-right Chega party. On a related note, Chega’s leader, who was hospitalized recently following incidents at a rally, has since been replaced by a more compatible figure amid party leadership changes.
If Simion triumphs, it could spell trouble for Romania’s Central Left Social Democrats (PSD) and Centre-Right Liberals (PNL), as the winners will play a vital role in establishing the next prime minister and shaping a new coalition.
Simion has vowed to nominate Karin Georgek as prime minister, despite her ongoing legal inquiries related to campaign finance and other controversies.
The president of Romania plays a significant role in shaping foreign policy, national security, and judicial appointments, even having the authority to dissolve the assembly under certain circumstances.
Analysts believe that neither the PSD nor PNL are eager for snap elections with AUR strengthening under Simion, suggesting a possible undercurrent where a PSD-endorsed minority government could emerge if he wins.
Simion has publicly opposed further aid to Ukraine and has been critical of EU leadership, despite affirming his intention for Romania to remain within the EU and NATO. However, there’s speculation he might align more closely with figures like Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, seen as disruptive forces in the region.
“The election of Simion signals a seismic shift in Romanian politics, posing significant risks to domestic stability, relations with Ukraine, and overall EU cohesion,” stated Mujitaba Rahman from Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy.
Simion’s prospects have caught many in the market by surprise, leading to a surge in the Romanian currency, the Leu. Foreign business chambers in Romania have cautioned about the potential “rapid deterioration” of the business climate. The country is already grappling with the highest budget shortfall in the EU.
