The push for resignations and a coordinated blockade against the so-called “shadow fleet” of Baltic oil tankers is poised to result in sanctions against 180 vessels before the upcoming EU foreign ministers’ meeting on Monday. This will bring the total number of sanctioned vessels to 350.
Stopping this fleet, which reportedly transports 85% of Russia’s oil exports, is deemed crucial for the EU’s strategy to maintain economic pressure on Russia, given that oil sales account for about a third of its budget.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a discussion with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently regarding the actions taken regarding the Shadow Fleet.
However, Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Kistis Budris expressed concerns that the current measures are not effective and highlighted the risk of potential Russian military retaliation. Approximately three loaded shadow tankers reportedly navigate Northern European waters, including the Danish Straits, each day.
At a conference in Tallinn, Budris emphasized the legal ambiguities around blockades in international waters and fears of escalating military conflict with Russia. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pebukul advocated for banning all sanctioned ships from entering EU ports, which would significantly constrict the Russian fleet—but this would likely infringe on maritime law.
When a Russian Sukhoi SU-35 jet entered Estonian airspace, it marked an escalation in the situation, seemingly as a response to a tanker named Jaguar, which was reportedly carrying Russian oil. It’s unclear whether the ship, previously sanctioned by the UK, was operating without flag registration.
The Estonian Navy suspects that a vessel from the Russian shadow fleet might threaten underwater cables, prompting them to investigate its registration. However, upon facing resistance from the Jaguar’s crew, they retreated and instead escorted the tanker to the international waters of the Gulf of Finland en route to Russia’s purimoorsk port. During this incident, the Russian jet entered Estonian airspace briefly without authorization.
This situation is regarded as the first demonstration of Russian military strength in support of the Shadow Fleet and marks the first such entry into Estonian airspace in three years.
The fleet is thought to have grown to include around 700 uninsured tankers, navigating around regulations that prohibit high-quality insurance for ships transporting oil priced above $60 per barrel. The U.S.-designed oil price cap policy is intended to limit revenue for military operations while ensuring oil supply continuity for the global market. G7 nations may allow ships without insurance to operate under certain conditions.
Budris remarked that less than half of the vessels approved by the EU, the U.S., or the UK hold licenses from all three. He emphasized the importance of standardizing evidence levels needed for ship approvals and clarified the regulatory framework under the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS) regarding vessel inspections within national exclusive economic zones. Since June of last year, Estonia has examined documents for over 450 vessels, yet its authority to take action in international waters is quite restricted.
Budris dismissed concerns from Baltic shipping firms that a more proactive stance would impede the freedom of Western ships sailing through the South China Sea.
He added that while legal advisors often highlight uncertainties in current blockade laws, the procedures are lengthy, making it impractical to attempt a revival of outdated UNCLOS regulations.
He commented, “Recent events, including last week’s Russian jet escorting movements, have altered the overall landscape. Russia now exhibits military strength, instigating incidents, and even encroaching into NATO airspace to safeguard these vessels.”
Since January, NATO’s Baltic Sentry Mission has been in place to protect critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, particularly undersea cables, but it doesn’t directly address issues related to the Shadow Fleet.
Budris stated, “We need to not only continue our Baltic Walk Sent but also broaden our mandate to address the Shadow Fleet to minimize the risk of military encounters in the Baltic Sea. This is serious.” However, Benjamin Hilgenstock from the Kyiv School of Economics argued that oil price caps have proven difficult to enforce, lacking mechanisms to ensure oil is traded at declared prices.
Critics argue that there’s a lack of coordinated enforcement actions or intelligence regarding the Shadow Fleet, even with the presence of expert groups. John Mead, deputy commander of NATO’s Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum, reiterated that while their focus is on protecting underwater cables, they have welcomed 1,800 ships for flag status checks and deployed a fleet of drones for enhanced surveillance.
He remarked, “If the Russians are intent on escalating their presence by escorting all shadow fleet vessels through the Baltic Sea, they’ll find that approach unsustainable very quickly.”
Anna Vieslander, director of Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council, reflected last year that Russia’s efforts are struggling to maintain its war economy. She asserted that the shadow fleet is integral to their national security, emphasizing that steps must be taken to impose sanctions across the board.
