Challenges of Ending the Ukrainian Conflict
Navigating the complexities of the Ukrainian War has always been tough for President Trump, but doing so amid flawed assumptions about the conflict makes it even harder.
Vladimir Putin is often viewed as the primary instigator of war and a major barrier to peace. While he embodies the enemy of the West, he doesn’t seem to face the same kind of pressure from the US that Ukrainian President Voldimi Zelensky does.
Following a highly anticipated call with Putin, Trump expressed optimism about continued negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, yet, interestingly, there was no indication of any significant progress.
Optimism Towards Putin
When Zelensky entered the Oval Office months ago, he received a clear message, which he seemed to acknowledge after reviewing US intelligence reports.
He made significant efforts to present himself as a rational leader keen on reaching an agreement.
Regarding a ceasefire suggested by the US? Zelensky stated he’s open to it. Russia’s proposal for a direct meeting in Istanbul? After initial hesitation, he agreed to go.
He also signed an important mineral trade agreement with the United States.
In stark contrast, Putin has seemingly been the recipient of all kinds of appeasement, responding accordingly.
One aspect of Trump’s approach on the global stage relies on the so-called “Madman Theory.” The idea here is that it’s wise not to provoke someone who is unpredictable and possibly volatile. Instead of portraying himself as a madman, Trump has, in some ways, adopted the role of a therapist engaging in diplomatic dialogue.
Trump seems to suggest that whatever Putin does could be justified if he were in a similar position, saying things like, “That’s unfortunate, and I hope he never does it again,” when discussing potential aggressive moves by Putin.
It’s not often that Trump adopts a pleading tone, but when Putin escalated attacks in Kiev last month, he publicly urged, “Vladimir, stop!”
The Kremlin’s strategy is becoming clear. Its goal seems to be to continue advancing territorial gains. If negotiations remain stagnant, there’s a risk that Trump could grow weary and consider cutting off aid to Ukraine. Such a move would effectively reward Putin’s obstinacy with a significant diplomatic victory, exacerbating the divide between the US and Europe and allowing further advances against Ukraine, which is increasingly beleaguered.
At times, Trump seems to grasp this dynamic, acknowledging how he feels Putin could “slap” him. Still, the intricate art of negotiating leverage seems lost when it comes to his dealings with Putin. Perhaps he’s influenced by a narrow view that paints Putin not as the problem but as a victim of meddling global elites misunderstanding Russia’s concerns.
Despite NATO’s expansion policies, it’s critical to note that Ukraine did not invade Russia. Putin’s insistence on Ukraine’s independence being a core issue of his aggression remains clear.
Understanding the Dynamics
As long as Putin feels he is prevailing and believes he holds the upper hand, why would he consider showing any flexibility? Trump and others in power are looking into further economic sanctions against Russia, but their effectiveness could be limited if the regime doesn’t address Ukraine’s fundamental inability to defend itself.
There have been staggering costs to Russia’s gains—around one million casualties since the war began.
If Ukraine remains steadfast and the US continues its support, it’s conceivable the Russians could reach a point of exhaustion.
Nonetheless, as things stand, Putin seems to have every reason to believe he can sustain his actions, particularly as global powers often seem to vilify the victims of his unwarranted assaults.
