A recent analysis of the November election reveals that former Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign for the White House in 2024 was unable to reconnect with the diverse coalition of young and new voters who had propelled former President Biden to victory four years prior.
The “What happened in 2024” report from a democratic data analytics company noted that while Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, retained some support from Biden’s 2020 coalition, it was at a significantly lower level. This was particularly evident among voters outside the diverse, youth-oriented battleground states.
“There isn’t a single demographic factor that can explain all the election dynamics. Instead, it’s a mix of related elements,” the analysts pointed out in a report released on Tuesday. “A key takeaway is that many of these groups had low participation in previous elections and tend to be disengaged from the political process.”
According to Catalyst, fewer than 50% of new voters supported the Democratic candidate after examining nearly two decades of election data.
The report identified several significant factors that contributed to Harris’ defeat to President Trump, including a widening gender gap and a shift among male voters towards the GOP. There were also notable declines in support from younger voters and voters of color. Hispanic support for the Democratic ticket dropped nine points, four points among Asian and Pacific Islander voters, and three points among Black voters, between 2020 and 2024.
In summary, analysts concluded that Harris’ loss was largely due to decreased support and turnout among crucial demographics, particularly the so-called “revolving voters.”
Trump secured 312 electoral votes compared to Harris’ 226, winning 49.8% of the popular vote against her 48.3%.
This election was marked by unusual events, including the Democrats’ unexpected shift following Biden’s July withdrawal and an assassination attempt on Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania.
At 60, Harris made history as the first Black woman and first Asian woman to head a major party ticket. Meanwhile, Trump, at 78, was looking to reclaim the White House after his loss four years ago, with ongoing legal challenges looming over him.
More than 155 million Americans cast their votes in the presidential election last year, representing nearly 64% of eligible voters—a slight decline from the historic turnout in 2020. Catalyst noted that while overall turnout was higher in battleground areas than in the previous election, the composition of the voting demographic had changed.
“Changing turnout patterns and evolving partisan preferences both influenced the final election outcome, with trends interconnected across various demographic groups,” the analysts noted.
The report indicated that Trump’s third campaign was distinct in several respects, particularly in his appeal to groups that have historically leaned Democratic, which played a critical role in his victory.
“Other Republican candidates have struggled to emulate Trump’s success in reaching less frequent voters within his coalition,” it stated. “While future candidates might find it challenging, these voters are likely to be more visible than they were prior to 2016.”
