California Governor Gavin Newsom’s name is surfacing more prominently in discussions about potential candidates for the 2028 presidential election, particularly following his recent confrontations with President Trump concerning issues in Los Angeles.
The protests surrounding immigration in the city prompted Trump to call for the National Guard’s deployment without consulting local authorities, allowing Newsom to position himself as a figure of resistance against Trump’s second term ambitions.
However, Democrats recognize that Newsom faces significant challenges as he rounds out his time as governor and navigates the deeply divided political landscape of the nation.
“He’s quite effective with Democrats, both in California and nationwide. His profile has risen in 2025,” noted John Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College in California.
“Unfortunately for him, the presidential nomination won’t take place until 2028,” he added.
Having established himself as a leader in the Democratic pushback during Trump’s initial term, Newsom entered the year with a seemingly more conciliatory stance towards the current administration and the GOP. After California suffered catastrophic wildfires earlier this year, drawing national attention, he publicly expressed a willingness to collaborate with Trump.
This shift seemed more centrist, potentially hinting at an interest in a 2028 run. Yet, following Trump’s reaction to recent protests against the Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s actions, Newsom responded by sending National Guard troops, despite initially opposing such measures.
With compelling speeches, media appearances, and social media engagements, Newsom characterized Trump’s actions in California as an abuse of power, emphasizing the critical battle for democracy and even challenging Tom Homan, Trump’s former border enforcement leader, to take action against him.
“Trump is undermining democracy,” he asserted.
While political tensions pose risks for both parties, they have also heightened attention on governors who are seen as potential candidates with national aspirations.
Though support leading into the 2028 elections remains low, a recent Morning Consult survey indicated a rise in backing for Newsom among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, increasing from 5% in March to 11% amid the protests. Kamala Harris, the former vice president, still leads with 34% support, although that figure has slightly declined.
So far, Newsom hasn’t delved into much speculation about his future, but he hasn’t closed the door to the idea of running. “I’m not contemplating running, but I can see that possibility unfolding,” he mentioned in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal. In a podcast appearance earlier this month, he added, “Fate will decide,” acknowledging that he would have plenty on his plate in the upcoming years.
Maria Cardona, a Democratic strategist, emphasized that Newsom’s resistance to Republican policies is simply part of his role as governor of a major blue state and not necessarily a prelude to a presidential run. Still, she acknowledged that his public engagements against GOP actions “certainly won’t hurt” his aspirations.
“It boosts faith among Democrats, independents, and even Republicans that there’s someone ready to stand up to Trump,” Cardona remarked.
Stephen Mavilio, another Democratic strategist, pointed out that Newsom’s efforts are vital for the party, especially after a rough election year, suggesting his recent visibility has bolstered his position in polling.
Nevertheless, experts caution that maintaining momentum in the lead-up to the election could present challenges. They indicate that Newsom, if he opts to run, will need to navigate various specific political obstacles.
California is becoming a focal point for conservative critiques, and protests could enhance Republican narratives portraying Democrats as lenient on crime and immigration issues.
“It’s both a strength and a liability… California represents 20% of the nation, providing significant visibility. But it’s also seen as very liberal, and his ties to San Francisco might contribute to skepticism,” they noted.
As the conflict with Trump continues, adjustments to his strategies may be required for Newsom to adequately serve his state while vying for national attention.
“Natural disasters like wildfires, earthquakes, or other emergencies in California will necessitate federal assistance, and he may have to downplay any tension with Trump at those times,” Pitney explained.
Some have raised concerns about Newsom’s shifting strategies between moderation and conflict, suggesting it could be politically detrimental in the long run.
“His difficulty lies in how he’s navigated his relationship with Trump,” Mavilio expressed. “He attempted a moderate stance, which didn’t resonate, so now he’s gone anti-Trump and gained some support. Yet, this inconsistency has left some doubts among party members.”
On the flip side, others assert that grappling with Trump could bolster Newsom’s standing within his party. Nonetheless, the looming question remains whether this strategy will resonate as Trump may not even be in the mix in 2028, altering the dynamics of opposition.
If Newsom decides to pursue the presidency, he will need to tread carefully between stepping down as governor and preparing for a campaign, a balance often difficult for many in his position. “It’s a tricky balance, especially when facing time constraints as governors tend to have,” Bennett suggested. “It’s difficult to be away from your responsibilities while gearing up for a presidential run.”
