Republican Families Outpacing Democrats in Birth Rates

There’s a notable trend that suggests Republicans are having more babies than Democrats, a gap that’s widening during the Trump presidency.

Reports, including data from the National Center for Health Statistics, highlight a striking link between the political landscape—specifically red versus blue counties—and their fertility rates.

Interestingly, it’s not just that obesity rates are high in some areas, but the voting patterns also reveal that Republican counties are becoming increasingly distinct from their Democratic counterparts.

According to analysis by the Family Research Institute, an increase in support for Trump correlates with higher family sizes. Specifically, every time Trump’s votes increase by 10% in the 2024 elections, there’s an expected rise of 0.09 in lifetime pregnancy rates among women.

For instance, in counties where less than 25% voted for Trump, the median pregnancy rate stood at 1.31, similar to what we see in Washington, D.C. On the flip side, counties with over 75% of votes for Trump had a median birth rate of 1.84. While the replacement rate is generally considered to be 2.1, this remains a significant difference.

The birth rate gap has dramatically increased—by 85%—over the past 12 years. Back in 2012, during the Obama versus Romney campaign, the birth rate difference between red and blue counties was only 8%. Currently, that difference has expanded to over three times, reaching 26% in 2024.

In larger counties, those leaning Democratic show a birth rate of 1.37, which is quite low compared to other regions. Moderate Democrats have rates close to the national average, while the “most Republican” counties experience a higher average birth rate of 1.76.

The higher fertility among Republicans can likely be linked to marriage patterns, says Grant Bailey, a research associate at the Family Research Institute. “Republicans tend to marry at higher rates, and married individuals usually have more children than their single counterparts,” Bailey notes. He also points out that even among married couples, conservatives often have larger families than liberals.

Bailey elaborates that the lower fertility rates among many married liberals only exacerbates the overall disparity. It’s definitely an interesting contradiction, if you think about it.

Erica Ahern, an author and mother of seven, believes that the drop in global fertility rates signals a larger problem, hinting at economic and social issues. She argues we need a cultural shift that places greater value on children and family. “Instead of viewing children as a burden, we should embrace a culture that appreciates their worth,” Ahern asserts.

Looking at CDC data for 2023, the top states with higher fertility rates tend to lean Republican, while those with the lowest rates are typically Democratic. For instance, South Dakota is the only state exceeding a birth rate of 2.01. Other states like Nebraska, North Dakota, Alaska, and Louisiana follow closely.

At the other end of the spectrum, Vermont holds the lowest birth rate at just 1.3. The Northeast appears to have the poorest performance overall, with states like Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island trailing with rates below 1.4.

In 2022, Vermont, Wyoming, and Delaware were noted for their low birth rates as well, a situation exacerbated by their population sizes, particularly in Vermont, when compared to national averages. California, despite a larger birth count of about 420,000, didn’t reach the higher fertility rates either, landing it as the 11th worst in terms of rates.