Polling Insights for the 2028 Presidential Election

In a recent poll, it appears that GOP Vice President JD Vance and former Democratic Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg are emerging as frontrunners for their respective parties in the 2028 presidential race.

Among Republican candidates, Vance is leading with 46% support, significantly ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has 12%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis trails with 9%, while Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. captures 5%. This information comes from the latest Emerson College survey.

On the Democratic side, Buttigieg holds a slim lead over a group of notable figures, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom (12%), and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, both at 7%. Interestingly, at least 23% of Democratic voters remain undecided about their choice.

Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, mentioned that while Vance appears to have solidified his position as the GOP frontrunner, there’s still uncertainty in the Democratic primary landscape. Vance’s popularity has noticeably increased since the last survey in November among the Republican base.

Harris, who previously garnered 37% support among Democratic voters in the Emerson poll after the last election, seems to be navigating her next steps carefully. While she hasn’t explicitly stated her intentions, it remains unclear if she’s gearing up for another presidential bid or eyeing a gubernatorial position in California in 2026.

After her defeat to Trump in November, Harris remarked that she wouldn’t simply fade away, yet she hasn’t confirmed her candidacy for any specific office.

The latest survey also highlighted President Trump’s approval ratings, which are showing signs of decline, with 46% disapproving of his performance while 45% approve. It seems he hasn’t communicated much with Vance since naming him as his running mate at the Republican National Convention last year, instead praising Rubio in a recent interview.

The Emerson College poll, conducted between June 24 and 25 with 1,000 registered voters, demonstrates that voter sentiments in the general congressional votes are nearly split between Republicans and Democrats at 42% each. The margin of error for this poll is about 3 percentage points.