I grew up in the Christian community in Egypt, and like many others, my family endured the oppressive grip of Gamal Abdel Nasser’s Islamic socialist regime. After that, his military dictatorship dominated our lives in almost every way.
As a young person, I managed to escape this oppression and seek the freedom that America offers. Having lived under such a regime, I deeply sympathize with the Iranian people, who just wish to live peacefully.
However, the leaders in Iran seem bent on a nuclear confrontation that pits their radical ideology against Western civilizations. Here are three key reasons why I believe the radical clerics in Iran will not give up their nuclear ambitions:
Reason 1: A nuclear-armed Iran cannot be contained by Cold War doctrines.
During the Cold War, the notion of mutually assured destruction (MAD) kept nuclear superpowers in check. Leaders understood that launching a nuclear attack would lead to their own destruction.
Trump’s potential “unexpected” strike against Iran if they resume their nuclear efforts.
Some argue, “We already coexist with nuclear-armed nations like North Korea and Pakistan. Is a nuclear Iran really that much worse?”
In reality, a nuclear Iran poses an infinitely greater threat. The ideology of Shia Islam, which dominates Iran, has outdated notions that do not conform to Cold War strategies. Here’s why:
Reason 2: Iranian leaders have religious motives that may drive them toward Armageddon.
I’ve spent considerable time engaging with both Sunni and Shia Muslims in the Middle East and studied cultural anthropology, focusing on fundamentalist Islamic movements. My work appears in a textbook titled “Revolt Against Modernity,” and I believe it’s crucial for those in the West to grasp Islamic history and beliefs.
Islam has various denominations, chiefly Sunni and Shia. The Safavid dynasty in 1501 officially recognized Twelver Shiite Islam as the state religion of Persia, distinguishing it from its Sunni neighbors. After Persia was renamed Iran in 1935, this faith remained predominant.
Twelver Shiism, the largest branch among Shiites, believes in a line of Imams believed to be divinely appointed successors of Muhammad. The last Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, is thought to be in occultation since the 9th century. Twelvers hold that Mahdi will eventually return to establish global justice.
Many Iranian clergy are convinced that they must provoke an apocalyptic conflict prior to Mahdi’s appearance. This notion might motivate some Iranian leaders, including possibly the Ayatollah, to engage in nuclear war to fulfill ancient prophecies.
Although Iran officially claims it does not pursue nuclear weapons—Ayatollah Khamenei even issued a fatwa against such arms in 2003—the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicates that Iran possesses enough enriched uranium to create nine nuclear warheads. Additionally, the Shia doctrine of Taqiyya permits deception of enemies until one holds the upper hand.
Reason 3: A nuclear Iran threatens not just Israel but all of Western civilization.
Iran has demonstrated that its missiles can breach Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense. Just think, if those missiles were to have nuclear warheads! Even more concerning, Iran is actively striving to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) via its Space Launch Vehicle (SLV) program.
According to Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, director of U.S. Defense Intelligence, Iran could leverage its SLV program to advance towards ICBM capabilities, and each satellite launch reveals more about its capacity to threaten Europe and North America.
The Iranian clergy’s message is clear: “Death to Israel! Death to America!” But we in the West don’t seek Iran’s destruction. We simply hope for the Iranian people to break free from the suffocating theocratic regime.
Throughout history, the Iranian populace has risen up during various protests—from the student demonstrations in 1999 to the violent protests in November 2019, and women’s rights movements in 2022. Sadly, each time their calls for freedom have been met with brutal suppression.
I remain hopeful that another uprising will soon take place, allowing the Iranian people to explore liberation. Furthermore, it’s imperative that U.S., European, and Israeli leaders do all they can to facilitate this much-needed change.
