Democrat socialist candidate Zoran Mamdani appears to be leading the race for Mayor of New York City. However, a recent poll indicates that if voters oppose Mamdani, they may lean towards a different opponent.
The US Pulse Survey reveals Mamdani at 35% support among general election voters, while former Governor Andrew Cuomo trails at 29%. Republican Curtis Swa has 16%, Mayor Eric Adams sits at 14%, and independent Jim Walden has just 1%.
“Mamdani’s early lead is notable, but closer examination could dampen enthusiasm among general election voters,” stated Dustin Olson, a pollster with American Pulse.
He cautioned that there are “warning signs” for Mamdani. Some voters may already feel regret over their choice. For instance, discussions about government-run grocery stores and the refusal to distance from certain controversial statements have raised concerns. Many, including myself, perceived some positions as anti-Semitic, which might weaken support.
Analysts had previously overestimated Cuomo’s chances to beat Mamdani in the Democratic primary, suggesting that general election predictions should be taken with some skepticism.
In the ranked selection primary, Mamdani garnered 44%, subsequently losing to Cuomo with 56% of votes.
Currently, Mamdani is appealing to a more diverse voter base, which may not align with some of his leftist proposals. These include a $9 billion tax on wealthy businesses, redistributing property tax burdens, and expanding city-run services into wealthier neighborhoods.
His stance on Israel—supporting boycotts and sanctions—could also present a challenge beyond the primary.
For now, however, Mamdani may benefit from a fragmented opposition, which could ease his path to winning the general election.
Cuomo, 67, is under pressure not to mount an aggressive campaign as part of the “Fight & Delivery” voting initiative. Civil rights activist Al Sharpton has advised him to step aside, while some unions that previously supported him now favor Mamdani.
Despite this, the Cuomo camp claims to have a new poll showing him as a formidable candidate against Mamdani in the general election, even suggesting that Adams should withdraw.
Olson noted that Adams is struggling, with his core support estimated at only 10% to 13%. He might not realize it yet, but his prospects are dwindling.
Adams is campaigning for reelection, promoting a platform centered on durability, safety, and affordability.
Cuomo has yet to finalize his decision about running. Despite everything, he remains listed on the ballot.
Mamdani still holds his lead, even as some of his proposals and controversies come to light.
Polling shows Mamdani’s support stable at 34.4%, compared to Cuomo at 29.5%. Even when some controversial positions were mentioned, Cuomo struggled to gain ground against Mamdani.
Support for Mamdani seems vulnerable, reflecting how voters would choose between him or “someone else.” The responses are quite divided, with 48% opting for Mamdani and 46% for another candidate.
When asked about his recent stances, Mamdani’s support dipped to 44%, while 50% said they would prefer someone else.
But the scandals involving Adams and Cuomo might deter voters even more.
A survey showed that 62% of voters view Adams unfavorably, and 52% have a negative impression of Cuomo. In contrast, Mamdani’s favorability stood at 47%, while 42% remained uncertain.
“Can Mamdani withstand scrutiny of his agenda? Will other candidates gain more attention? The answers to these questions will shape the race,” Olson remarked.
The American Pulse Research & Polling conducted this survey from June 28 to July 1, interviewing 568 voters through various methods, with a margin of error of +/- 4.0%. It was financed by subscribers and not by any campaigns.
