As the recent stock market, roller coaster rides are unlikely to close soon, it makes clear a picture of the macroeconomics where investors can put bottoms for the stock price. Wall Street is set to hold its latest meeting in an era of increasing tariff uncertainty, with an economic dataset that has become scrutinized by laserizing signs consumers are pulling back. Elsewhere, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will focus on talking about the future of AI to take the stage at the GTC developer conference. All this could already be disrupted and take the market. Many investors are questioning whether the S&P 500, which will be participating in the NASDAQ Composite in this week's revision area, is the worst of all recent pullbacks. The two fell by more than 10% from an all-time high just a few weeks ago. What is obvious at least is that volatility remains the norm. “We don't think we've seen the bottom,” said Vishal Kanduja, head of broad market bonds at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “The volatility will be high, so there may be a bit more downside before it becomes clear from a policy perspective.” Investors in the SPX YTD Mountain S&P 500 are focusing on Germany to monitor how governments around the world are responding to Trump's policies after Conservative Friedrich Merz announced plans to overhaul the national “debt brake” to increase the country's defense spending. Germany's decade outside was last and last, less than 2.9%, from about 2.3% last month. On Friday, stocks bounced back from their recent lows, but the main average is still heading towards the week of losing. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each fell by more than 2% in the week they lost their fourth time. The Dow Jones industrial average is on track for a week in a row, with a second consecutive week of losses of over 3%. Signs of more recession? Over the next few weeks, given the recent debilitating rubber ring, the interests for economic data reports to be raised will be high to show that the economy remains resilient. On Friday, the University of Michigan's latest consumer sentiment survey showed growing concerns over inflation, tariffs and stock market declines. Reading fell to 57.9 in March, down more than 10% since February, the lowest since November 2022. CEOs of airlines in the US, Delta and Southwest warned of slower domestic travel and cut quarter estimates. Retailers such as Kohl's and Dick's sporting goods said they hope 2025 will be a challenge as they flag consumer trust. “The US data cycle will be extremely important,” said Kanduja of Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “We've seen some of the survey-level data that shows weaknesses, but we need a little more confirmation from stiffer data, or basic data.” Khanduja, who has not held a recession in the base case, said that despite this, he will watch economic data in the next six to eight weeks to test his paper. Will it be supplied to rescue? Recently, the Fed Put idea that central banks cut back on recession to prevent the recession has grown on Wall Street, especially after this week's soft consumer and producer price index reduced sticky inflation concerns. However, if inflation has not yet returned to its 2% target, some people may be worried that central banks will have a challenging decision if they need to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. This year, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank is not in a hurry to cut interest rates. The Fed is also widely telegraphed to stabilize interest rates at the end of the two-day meeting on March 19th. The odds for two three-quarter-point reductions for 2025 increased, according to the CME FedWatch tool. “The expectations for a reduction in the Fed rate… have declined over the past six months,” said Thomas Browne, portfolio manager at Keeley Teton Advisors. “And yesterday we've changed with a bit of a good inflation printing, and we're concerned about the impact of tariffs on the economy.” Nvidia Nvidia will focus a week ago as the GPU Technology Conference (GTC) will become a potential inventory catalyst in the bare market, turning it off more than 20% off its recent high. History shows that at least there is a possibility that Potterchild gathers after the meeting. Wells Fargo has found that he averaged 6.5 percentage points ahead of Soxx on GTC week over the past five years. Still, the bar is high for Nvidia to impress investors who want to make sure chipmakers can continue to release new chips on a faster schedule than before. Investors will seek details on Nvidia's upcoming chip called “Rubin,” named after Vera Rubin, an astronomer who discovered dark matter at the event. Calendars for a week ahead, etc. Monday, March 17th, 8:30am, Teikoku State Index (March) 8:30am, Retail Sales (February) 10am, Business Inventory (January) 10am, NAHB Housing Market Index (March) Tuesday (March) 18:30am, AM Building Permit (February) 8:30am, 8:30am, AM Import Price Index) 9:15am, Manufacturing Production (February) NVIDIA GTC, Keynote address March 18th. (March) 8:30am Existing Home Sales (February) 8:30am Reading Indicator (February) Revenue: Nike, Micron Technology, Lennar, Fedex, Darden Restaurants Friday, March 21st
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