French voters gave the majority of seats to a broad-based left-wing coalition in crucial parliamentary elections that failed to bring the far-right to power but left France with an unprecedented situation in which there is no dominant political force in Parliament.
While divided parliaments are not uncommon in Europe, France has never experienced such an event in its modern history. It will thrust France into uncharted territory with tense negotiations to form a new government and appoint a prime minister who would focus on domestic affairs and share power with the president.
President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition came second in Sunday’s runoff election for the National Assembly, France’s lower house. Both Macron’s centrist and left-wing camps ran against the far-right, with candidates dropping out in a three-way race in favor of the candidate seen as most likely to beat the far-right. The far-right party came third but still managed to gain a significant number of seats.
No clear candidate for the future prime ministerial position has emerged.
Macron can suggest a name, but any choice needs the backing of a majority in parliament. He said he would wait to decide his next steps before traveling to Washington this week for a NATO summit. The new lawmakers will begin work on Monday and meet for the first time on July 18.
Hung Parliament?
Three major political forces have emerged, but none are close to maintaining a majority of at least 289 seats in the 577-seat parliament. Results so far show the left-wing New Popular Front coalition winning just over 180 seats, Macron’s centrist Together for the Republic coalition winning 160 seats, and the far-right National Rally party winning more than 140 seats.
The National Assembly is the most important chamber in France’s bicameral parliament and has the final say on legislative matters vis-à-vis the conservative-dominated Senate.
With a divided lower house, lawmakers need to forge cross-party consensus and agree on government positions and a legislative agenda — a particularly difficult task given France’s divisive politics and deep divisions over taxes, immigration and Middle East policy.
The result means Macron’s centrist coalition will almost certainly be unable to implement pro-business proposals such as an overhaul of unemployment benefits, and could find it harder to pass a budget.
Can Macron make a deal with the left?
Mr Macron may seek a pact with moderates on the left, but France has no tradition of such deals, so such talks — if they happen at all — are likely to be difficult and could end up as informal and fragile alliances.
Macron has said he will not work with the far-left Indomitable France party, but he could reach out to other parties in the New Popular Front – the Socialists and the Greens – but they might reject it.
Last week, the government suspended a decree that would have reduced workers’ unemployment benefit rights, in a move that was interpreted as a gesture towards the left.
Some of Macron’s allies have pushed for a government centered around centrists and the conservative Republicans, who came in fourth with more than 60 seats, but the group still needs the support of additional lawmakers.
Crowds gather at Place de la Republique after the second round of voting in Paris’ legislative elections, Sunday, July 7, 2024. France’s left-wing coalition, which quickly rallied to defeat a burgeoning far-right coalition in legislative elections, won the most seats in Parliament but fell short of a majority, according to poll projections Sunday, a surprising result that threatens to plunge the country into political and economic turmoil. (AP Photo/Aurélien Molissard)
Is the Left Divided?
The left has become divided, especially since Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7th.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon and other leaders of the far-left party Unbowed have been heavily criticised by other moderate leftists over their stance on the conflict. Far-left politicians who have accused Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians have faced accusations of anti-Semitism, which they strongly deny.
The Socialist party ran alone in last month’s European Parliament elections, but left-wing leaders rallied around the New Popular Front after President Macron called for early parliamentary elections.
Their joint platform pledges to raise the minimum monthly wage from 1,400 to 1,600 euros ($1,515 to $1,735), reverse Mr Macron’s pension reforms that raised the retirement age from 62 to 64 and freeze food and energy prices – all of which has unsettled financial markets.
What is Mélenchon’s role?
Mélenchon has said his left-wing coalition is “ready to take power.” But he is unlikely to be named prime minister because Macron has refused to work with him and Mélenchon’s own coalition has not so far recommended him as a candidate for prime minister. The Popular Front’s new leaders say further internal discussions are needed.
The 72-year-old founder of Indomitable France is disliked by many moderates and considered authoritarian. A cunning politician and skilled orator, Mélenchon has long been a key figure on the French left since his time with the Socialist Party. He launched Indomitable France in 2016 and ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 2017 and 2022.
Political opponents say the left’s victory in Sunday’s parliamentary elections was driven more by fears of the far right than by the appeal of Mr. Mélenchon and his party.
Why is a “provisional” government needed?
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his resignation on Monday, but President Macron asked him to stay on “temporarily” as the election results left the government in limbo. Attal has said he plans to stay on as prime minister for the duration of the Paris Olympics or for as long as necessary.
For the time being, Mr Attal’s government will handle day-to-day administration, with Mr Macron’s office saying it will “wait for the new National Assembly to be formed” before taking any decisions on a new government.
There is no clear timetable for when Macron must name a prime minister, and no clear rule that he must choose someone from the largest party or group in parliament.
What about Macron?
He has said he has no plans to step down as president, whose term runs until 2027. The election leaves Macron weakened, with no majority and little chance of implementing his policies.
However, under the French constitution, the president still has authority over foreign policy, European affairs and defense, and is responsible for negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces and holds the nuclear weapons codes.
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The prime minister is responsible to parliament, heads the government and introduces legislation, and the new prime minister may be unable or unwilling to seriously challenge Mr Macron’s defence and foreign policy prerogatives.
