Rumblings of conflict are resonating in the Caribbean. U.S. naval forces are active in southern waters, and F-35 jets stand ready in Puerto Rico. It seems a list of potential targets is being prepared in Washington. The debate isn’t just about the U.S.’s ability to act, but rather whether it should take that action—and who the actual adversary is.
Many hints point towards Venezuela, often viewed by neoconservatives as a target for regime change. Some Republicans argue that Venezuela symbolizes the heart of Latin America’s drug trade, suggesting military intervention might be premature.
A genuine effort to combat drug cartels shouldn’t spiral into yet another regime change initiative.
This narrative is appealing but misleading. Venezuela isn’t functioning as a cartel state, and the situation at hand isn’t truly a drug war.
A tale of two drug nations
In September, the Trump administration initiated two significant changes to regional policy. For the first time since 1996, Venezuela was added to the annual list of key drug transport and producing countries.
This decision was quite deliberate. It openly acknowledged what U.S. leaders have often avoided saying: Colombia is the actual narco-state, not Venezuela.
Colombia continues to hold the title of the world’s top cocaine producer. From the Medellin cartel of Pablo Escobar to the FARC’s funding of illicit activities, various groups have effectively controlled state functions and large areas of land. At one time, they governed nearly half the nation. Despite decades of U.S. efforts under Plan Colombia, coca cultivation remains close to record levels.
In contrast, Venezuela plays a minor role in coca production, mainly acting as a transit route for Colombian cocaine destined for global markets. While there is undeniable corruption—especially in the military, where networks known as the “Sunshine Cartel” engage in human trafficking—these actors don’t represent the state as a whole.
Unlike Colombia, Venezuelan cartels haven’t taken over regions or established self-governing territories. Although Venezuela’s economic turmoil has diminished state authority, it hasn’t created a situation comparable to Sinaloa or Medellin.
Regime change fever returns
Still, it seems the U.S. is leaning toward confrontation. The naval buildup and specific actions against Venezuelan shipping are starting to look like preparations for a regime change strategy.
The risks are already evident. The U.S. might find itself embroiled in yet another unwinnable military engagement, draining resources while destabilizing the region without benefitting Americans. The shadows of Iraq and Afghanistan linger, reminding us of conflicts that cost countless American lives and tremendous financial resources, only to culminate in disappointment.
There are compelling reasons for Americans to want a robust strategy against the drug cartels affecting our communities. However, going after Venezuela misinterprets the problem. A mere fraction of the hemisphere’s drug trade traverses Venezuelan territory, and the country doesn’t manufacture fentanyl.
If the U.S. truly seeks to dismantle these cartels, its focus should be on Colombia’s coca fields and Mexico’s trafficking routes, not Caracas.
No Exit
Invading Venezuela would lead to catastrophe. Maduro’s regime is already equipping civilians with arms. Armed groups are present in both cities and rural areas. The populace is antagonistic, the landscape poses challenges, and a prolonged insurgency seems likely.
Those vying for power will do everything possible to provoke conflict with U.S. forces, gladly shouldering the responsibility while denying any costs.
The conflict would spill over Venezuela’s borders, destabilizing Colombia, Ecuador, and Brazil, and inciting a surge of migrants heading northward. The fallout from Saddam Hussein’s downfall notably reshaped European migration patterns for years. A similar situation in Venezuela could have repercussions for the U.S.
Limited strikes would likely serve little purpose beyond inflating the egos of the most hawkish figures in Washington. An all-out invasion would inevitably create chaos and a power void.
A real test
President Trump stands at a pivotal crossroads. Influencers within his inner circle will push for decisive action. He must resist these pressures. A legitimate campaign against drug cartels should not devolve into yet another initiative focused on regime change.
The United States has paid dearly for such errors in the past. We must not repeat them.
