Polls show that majorities of Black voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan say they would vote for President Biden in a hypothetical general election, but a significant share of Biden’s 2020 supporters say they will support a third-party candidate or are undecided. release Sunday.
of USA TODAY/Suffolk University PollThe survey, conducted June 9-13, included 500 black voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan, two states seen as crucial to winning the November presidential election.
In both states, support for Biden is down from 2020. In Pennsylvania, 56.2% of black voters surveyed said they would vote for Biden today, down 20 points from those who said they voted in 2020. In Michigan, 54.4% of black voters surveyed said they support Biden, down 22 points from those who said they voted in 2020.
Exit polls showed that 92% of Black voters supported Biden in 2020, but in the new survey, 76% of respondents told pollsters they voted for Biden in 2020.
Trump’s approval rating has risen slightly from 2020, with his approval rating increasing in Pennsylvania to 10.8% from about 8% in 2020 and in Michigan to 15.2% from 9% in 2020.
In Pennsylvania, asked to choose between six presidential candidates, 16.4% of respondents support a third party candidate: 7.6% support independent Cornell West, 7.4% support independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 1% support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and 0.4% support Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver.
The results are similar in Michigan, with Kennedy receiving the support of 8 percent of black voters surveyed, compared with 6.2 percent for West, 1 percent for Stein and 0.2 percent for Oliver.
Among black voters in both states, 13.8% said they were still undecided.
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk Center for Political Research and leader of the poll, told USA Today that most voters see Biden as their first or second choice. In Michigan, for example, 54% of respondents support Biden, but an additional 45% say he is their second choice.
In both states, black voters who support an independent candidate first are more likely to support Biden over Trump as a second choice.
Kennedy supporters in Pennsylvania are more likely to choose Biden over Trump as their second choice, 27 percent to 11 percent, and in Michigan they are more likely to choose Biden over Trump, 48 percent to 13 percent.
Palaiologos said that while Biden has an opportunity to win over third-party voters, he faces the unique challenge of having to maintain his high approval rating from 2020 with little room to expand, according to USA Today.
“If you didn’t vote in 2020, why would you vote in 2024?” Paleologos asked, according to USA Today. “In these battleground states, it’s the least connected, least engaged people who matter the most.”
The survey comes as both Trump and Biden have stepped up their outreach and messaging to black voters, particularly black men, underscoring the political influence this demographic will have in November.
Recent polls have found that Trump’s support among black men is more than double that of black women. In Pennsylvania, 16% of black men surveyed support Trump, compared with 6% of black women. In Michigan, 22% of black men support Trump, compared with 9% of black women.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
