Democratic strategist Dan Turrentine says Republican campaign missteps and candidate choices could give Democrats an opening to take the Senate, with several close races appearing to shift in their direction before Tuesday’s election.
Turrentine, who was chief of staff to then-Congressman Jared Polis, now Colorado’s governor, said Democrats have a strong chance of reclaiming the chamber. “Five days out, Democrats have a pretty good chance to retake the Senate,” he said.
He pointed to North Carolina, where Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring. The traditionally Republican seat looks increasingly competitive: polls show former Gov. Roy Cooper with a sizable lead over former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley.
Republicans currently hold a 53–47 Senate majority and are widely expected to lose their narrow advantage in the House. But races in Ohio and Michigan, along with contests in reliably Republican Texas, Kansas and Missouri, have also tightened. Turrentine said Democratic gains in those states could put control of Congress within reach.
He credited Democrats’ campaigning but argued that Republican candidates are also a weakness. He named Ken Paxton in Texas, Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, Roger Marshall in Kansas and Darlene Graham Nordone, who is running for the seat of her late brother, former Sen. Lindsey Graham.
Should Republicans lose the Senate, Turrentine said, one of those four candidates would likely be responsible. The president’s standing matters, he added, but the final stretch may come down to the strength of individual candidates.
Even so, Turrentine cautioned against putting too much faith in the polls. Surveys have overstated Democratic support before, he said, and campaigns are worried that reaching voters has become harder as people abandon landlines and ignore calls from numbers they do not recognize.
Recent elections have repeatedly produced late shifts that polls struggled to capture, he said. It remains unclear whether frustrated Trump voters will stay home or whether early Democratic gains in Texas simply reflect habitual voters casting ballots sooner. “Nobody knows,” he said, describing the uncertainty ahead of Tuesday.
Turrentine had been more confident about a Democratic Senate takeover before a New York Times report alleged that Alaska Democratic candidate Mary Peltola helped recruit Daniel J. Sullivan to run against Republican Sen. Daniel S. Sullivan. The reported aim was to confuse voters into choosing the challenger, who shares the incumbent’s name. Peltola has denied involvement in his campaign.
Before the report, Peltola had led nearly every poll, Turrentine said. Democrats have benefited in many states from disaffected Republicans, but he warned that some voters might decide they cannot support the Democratic candidate. He now views Alaska as a toss-up.
If Democrats lose the Alaska race, Turrentine said, they may need to win Ohio and Texas, plus one of Michigan, Maine, Kansas or Mississippi to secure a majority. Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running close to her Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, remains an uncomfortable possibility for Democrats. A recent CNN poll put Jackson ahead 49% to 45%.
Turrentine said Democrats would face another challenge if they take the Senate: managing tensions between moderate voters needed to win seats and a party base increasingly drawn to the left. Moderates need strong turnout from that base, he said, while activists also expect the party to reflect their priorities.
He also said Democrats remain uncertain about House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who could become speaker if his party wins the House. Unlike Nancy Pelosi, Turrentine said, Jeffries has yet to earn the confidence of both the party’s moderate and progressive wings. Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is facing the possibility of a primary challenge from his left.
